Pick Your Poison:如何应对最近的股市回升

作者:weileguojia  于 2011-10-31 02:49 发表于 最热闹的华人社交网络--贝壳村

通用分类:政经军事

As I said, the plan at this juncture is nothing more than a line in the sand. And the sand is shifting.
The markets have rallied hugely. If you've missed this major push north and want to get in, do it very gingerly. We could see markets rally through year-end based on the positive contagion from the perception that this plan is going to be detailed, financed and executed.

Buy with caution and use very tight stops. I would suggest 10% to 15% stops.

On the other hand, I would be equally at ease shorting this rally, also with tight stops.

As a trader, that would be my choice. I believe we've come too far, too fast. We've been rocketing higher on short-covering and hopes that the threat of European contagion would be addressed and conquered. 

Well, it's been addressed, as in, "hello, my name is uncertainty."

And as far as conquering the systemic problems in Europe, we've still got a long way to go. This plan is nothing more than a liquidity backstop to a solvency problem. 

The only way this situation will be fixed for good is if Europe's insolvent countries are afforded enough liquidity to grow their way out of their budget holes.

Good luck with that. 

France, Europe's second-largest economy, in September saw a wide measure of its unemployment tick up by some 4.175 million people. The government has reduced gross domestic product (GDP) forecasts to 1.75%, but private economists are putting that number closer to 1%. 

Germany has been slowing down, as have almost all other European countries.

And so many questions still linger. 

What will required austerity measures do to future growth prospects? What social and political implications will the continent have to deal with as it tries to extend and pretend that it's not really one giant debtor-in possession? What will fuel growth if there's no bank capital to finance it? What will happen if structural recession is the new normal? And what will happen if we get sequential crises via Portugal, Italy, or some other debt-laden country?

For investors wanting to jump onto rallying markets, I say be careful. We're not out of the woods. And for investors thinking about fading this rally, I say give it a shot.

Just don't forget the devil is in the details and sand is not concrete.

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