智商不同导致中美两种截然不同的振兴道路和不同的国际地位

智商不同导致中美两种截然不同的振兴道路和不同的国际地位
美国总统大选年间，经济前景愈趋黯淡，民主、共和两党的国会领袖前日举行紧急会议，加快磋商救市方案，双方罕有地放下歧见寻求共识，乐观预料一个月内可推出耗资1000亿至1250亿美元的振兴经济方案，美国总统布什和联邦储备委员会主席本·伯南克（Ben Bernanke）17日表示支持经济振兴计划以扭转美国经济衰退趋势。伯南克说这样的计划将很快执行，以在短期内防止美国财政问题复杂化。　　
出席众议员预算委员会的美国联邦储备官员说，这个计划包括将资金放入美国家庭手中，并保证这些家庭在短期内使用这些资金，并称这一措施要比任何其它条款都要有效。伯南克预测说，2008年美国经济将有缓慢增长而不是衰退。
　　伯南克明确表明支持经济振兴方案的理念，其中很有可能包含退税政策，但他并不看好布什的永久税务减免计划。伯南克强调，他不支持将长期的减税方案变成永久性的提议。在此前，布什政府与许多共和党议员均同意接受退税，包括增加对中小企业暂时免税的额度，如投资减税额，白宫与共和党认为如此将有助于投资；另一方面，白宫也希望藉机让国会通过2001年与2003年减税方案全面化的立法，让它们成为永久方案。
　　经济问题不只让华尔街蒙受损失，也增加了选民的顾虑，因此，两党的总统参选人均提出自己的经济政策，希望获得选民支持。经济困境对两年前接下美联储主席一职的伯南克来说也是个大挑战。伯南克上周已暗指美联储将在1月30日结束的会议中做出进一步的降息决定。伯南克1月17日作证时再度强调，若要刺激经济，大幅降息是必要的手段。许多经济学家相信美联储在本月底的降息幅度将会降息50个基点，目前的利率为4.25％。去年美联储从9月开始便做了三次的降息动作，但华尔街等地的批评者抱怨伯南克行动太慢、且力度不够。
　　伯南克称，财政振兴计划应该尽快实行，这样才可以在以后的一年中起到作用，退税旨在将钱尽快还给消费者，这样才可以推进消费增长，给经济带来活力。此外，他还说，财政计划应该暂时避免带给联邦政府预算赤字以及长期财政负担。
　　白宫发言人托尼·弗兰多（Tony Fratto）说，总统相信在短期内要想解决目前的经济问题是需要一些推进措施的。这是第一次白宫明确肯定布什支持政府干预。直到目前为止，白宫只是表示，布什在考虑一些短期的刺激措施。但弗兰多拒绝给出总统宣布振兴计划的时间。
　　布什和国会领导人的电话会议预计会加速经济振兴计划的出炉。众议院发言人南希·佩洛西（Nancy Pelosi）和共和党领袖约翰·波伊纳尔（John Boehner）16日承诺以立法形式振兴美国经济。很多经济学家相信，联邦储备委员会将降低他们的利率。此外，民主党和共和党都相信退税政策将会是计划中的一部分。

WASHINGTON - President Bush, acknowledging the risk of recession, embraced about $145 billion worth of tax relief Friday to give the economy a "shot in the arm. "

Bush said such a growth package must also include tax incentives for business investment and quick tax relief for individuals. And he said that to be effective, an economic stimulus package would need to roughly represent 1 percent of the gross domestic product — the value of all U.S. goods and services and the best measure of the country's economic standing.

"There is a risk of a downturn," the president said in his remarks at the White House.

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, speaking after Bush's remarks, said 1 percent of GDP would equate to $140 billion to $150 billion, which is along the lines of what private economists say should be sufficient to help give the economy a short-term boost.

Paulson said the largest part of the stimulus package would be targeted to individual taxpayers. One Republican official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Bush was hoping to target about $100 billion toward individuals and about $50 billion toward businesses.

The president and Congress are scrambling to take action as fears mount that a severe housing slump and painful credit crisis could cause people to close their wallets and businesses to put a lid on hiring, throwing the nation into its first recession since 2001.

Bush said that Congress and the administration need to settle on a temporary economic package that could be implemented quickly to "keep our economy growing and create jobs." While Bush focused on taxes, Democratic and Republican leaders in Congress have been working on a package that would also include extending and perhaps increasing unemployment benefits and a temporary increase in food stamps.

"Letting Americans keep more of their money should increase consumer spending," he said.

Bush outlined several criteria for the package to meet: It must be "big enough to make a difference in an economy as large and dynamic as ours," it must be built on "broad-based tax relief," it must take effect right away but be temporary, and it must not include any tax increases.

Specifically, he called for tax incentives for businesses, including small companies, to make new and major investments this year. "Giving them an incentive to invest now will encourage business owners to expand their operations, create new jobs and inject new energy into our economy in the process," Bush said.

He also called for tax relief for individuals — probably to come in the form of one-time rebates. But he did not say how much money Americans would get to keep or the amount of other tax incentives that could be in the package. Nor did Bush detail how the nation would pay for such a plan.

"Americans can spend this money as they see fit: to help meet their monthly bills, cover higher costs at the gas pump, pay for other basic necessities," he said.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., has talked of a package totaling $100 billion or more. House Republican leader John Boehner of Ohio spoke of a bill in the range of $100 billion to $150 billion. Aides have said Bush does not believe the stimulus spending should be offset — or paid for — by any tax or spending changes elsewhere. Some deficit hawks want this but isn't expected to be part of any package.

Speaking for about seven minutes, Bush called passing a growth package "our most pressing economic priority." But he also used his announcement to defend his tax cuts, which are set to expire unless the Democratic-led Congress opts to extend them.

He acknowledged Americans' fears of an economic downturn.

"The economy's still creating jobs, though at a reduced pace," he said. "Consumer spending is still growing, but the housing market is declining. Business investment and exports are still rising, but the cost of imported oil has increased."

He said his advisers and many outside experts expect that the U.S. economy will continue to grow over the coming year, but at a slower rate than the past few years.

"Continued instability in the housing and financial markets could cause additional harm to our overall economy and put our growth and job creation in jeopardy," he said.

Bush said markets rise and fall, and there are times when swift, temporary action by the government can help ensure that market fluctuations do not undermine the economy. "This is such a moment," he said.

"We're in the midst of a challenging period," Bush said. "And I know that Americans are concerned ... But our economy has seen challenging times before. It is resilient."

Bush has gone down the tax rebate road before. Back in 2001, he added refunds of up to $300 per individual and $600 per household as a recession-fighting element of the tax cut plan that had been the centerpiece of his 2000 campaign.

Economists said a reasonable range for tax cuts in the new package might be $500 to $1,000. A White House plan is looking at rebates of up to $800 for individuals and $1,600 for married couples.

Bush first signaled his support for the approach of income tax rebates for people and tax breaks for business investment in a conference call Thursday with bipartisan congressional leaders.

Democratic congressional leaders agree that tax relief should be in the package, but are working on a broader measure that would also include aid targeted to the poor and unemployed.

White House deputy press secretary Tony Fratto said there are many ways to get quick agreement. Bush chose to lay out "principles" with few specifics to the American people now, while bipartisan negotiations with Capitol Hill are taking place privately. The White House feels Bush was out of the mix for too long, because he was away for eight days in the Mideast while Democratic leaders talked almost daily about the need to stimulate the economy — and how.

The White House scheduled Bush to talk about a stimulus package twice on Friday. After the Roosevelt Room appearance, he left for a visit at a Frederick, Md., manufacturing plant.

Wall St. firms pay record bonuses despite huge losses

Wall Street's five biggest firms are paying a record $39 billion US in bonuses for 2007, a year when three of the companies suffered the worst quarterly losses in their history and shareholders lost more than $80 billion.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch & Co., Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Bear Stearns Cos. together awarded $65.6 billion in compensation and benefits last year to their 186,000 employees. That means year-end bonuses, at 60 per cent of the total, exceeded the $36 billion distributed in 2006 when the industry reported all-time high profits.

The New York-based firms, which shed 25 per cent of their equity value during 2007, have said they're eliminating at least 6,200 jobs amid mounting losses from the collapse of the subprime mortgage market. The payouts come as the U.S. economy slows, with unemployment rising, retail sales declining and new home foreclosures surging to a record.

"To many people, it will be shocking and questionable," said Jeanne Branthover, managing director of Boyden Global Executive Search in New York.

"People in New York in the world of investment banking will understand it. It's critical that pay is still there or you're going to lose really good people."

The industry's bonuses are larger than the gross domestic products of Sri Lanka, Lebanon or Bulgaria, and the average bonus of $219,198 is more than four times higher than the median U.S. household income in 2006, according to data compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Shareholders in the securities industry endured their worst year since 2002, as Merrill and Bear Stearns slumped more than 40 per cent in New York trading and the chief executive officers at both firms gave up their jobs.

Morgan Stanley fell 21 per cent and Lehman dropped 16 per cent.

Only Goldman rose, gaining 7.9 per cent.

"Wall Street firms have always been run, and likely always will be run, for the upper-level management, not for the shareholders," said James Ellman, who manages about $200 million, including stock in Morgan Stanley and Merrill, at San Francisco-based SeaCliff Capital.

Merrill, the largest U.S. brokerage, posted a record fourth-quarter loss of $9.83 billion Thursday, bringing the net loss for the five firms to $10.2 billion and reducing the combined net income for the full year to $11.5 billion, the lowest since 2002.

Goldman earned $11.6 billion last year, more than the $11.2 billion combined profit reported by Morgan Stanley, Lehman, Bear Stearns and New York-based Citigroup Inc., the biggest U.S. bank.

Merrill lost more in the past two quarters than it earned in the previous six. Its full-year loss of $7.8 billion was greater than the firm's 2006 profit.

Merrill paid $15.9 billion of compensation and benefits for 2007, exceeding the company's $11.3 billion of revenue.

While combined revenue for the five firms dropped 13 per cent to $110 billion, compensation and benefits grew 8.7 per cent.

Bonuses for 2007 probably will mark a high point as revenue declines stretch into this year, said Charles Geisst, a finance professor at Manhattan College in Riverdale, N.Y.

"The gilded age just ended," he said.

"Ferrari dealers are going to be selling Tata cars. I think this is going to be the worst year we've had in a very long time."

布什或向纳税人退税三至八百美元

倍可亲(backchina.com)美国布什政府将采取紧急措施拯救美国经济陷入衰退，有可能包括向缴税者退还300至800美元现金，激励疲弱的消费市场。

外电报道联储局主席贝宁克建议布什总统刺激国内经济，就须把金钱退给消费者。据悉，全美三分二家庭将获得300至800美元退税、一对夫妇更达1,600美元、宽减公司设备投资税等。

布什18日讨论振兴美国经济的方案，但白宫发言人17日强调内容不会涉及具体细节。