Stock comments for 2010.8.2.

作者:老石  于 2010-8-2 12:10 发表于 最热闹的华人社交网络--贝壳村



I'm studying stocks, so I'm post my stock comments. I want too see if the theory I learned from the book make sense. Making my comments does not mean that I'm buying or selling, nor I want to suggest my readers to take any action based on my comments. I'm not good at stocks.
The stock I will make comments are from NASDAQ 100 or S&P 100.
1)  The big pictures (Weekly Charts):
SMA(20) (green),
SMA(50) (cyan),
SMA(200) (pink).
SMA(200) is still in a downward slope. The DOW hit it once and retreated, produced a series of lower lows. The SMA(20) has been in a downward slope for about 10 weeks now. The last 4 weeks were relatively good. It hit a resistance of 10590.00 last week, but it did not manage to close above the SMA(20). In the next a few weeks, if the DOW is retreating, we can expect SME(20) and SME(50) goes a cross. That will be a bad sign for the bull. At this time, the market is indecisive.
S&P 500
S&P 500 is a benchmark for stock's relative performances. It has a very similar picture, except that the downward slope of SMA(200) and SMA(20) are more visible. The last week was a loosing week, closed just above the SMA(50).
Nasdaq 100:
Among these 3 indexes, only the Nasdaq is above the SMA(200), and the slope is upward. But it also had produced a lower low in the past month.
Economic pictures are not so bright as the government would like us to believe. So far it's definitely a jobless recovery, powered by the government stimulus programs. However, the government can not continue the deficit spending. The good earnings report of this season may not continue in the next report season.

With these in mind, the stock market performance in the next a few weeks are critical. The stock market performance is tied with investors expectations of the companies future performance. So we can not assume that the stock will continue to go up.

The following are the stocks in my radar screen next week:

CHRW: Earnings report were out on 2010.7.27, causing a gap up on the next day. There will be no surprises for the time being. Last Friday, it closed at 65.20. In the past 3 trading days, it's already in a major resistance area, just two dollars shy of all time high of 67.35. So it's time to short. I would scale in 33% of the intended position now, and then 77% at 67.00. The stop would be at 68.00.

BIDU: Bidu is less than 1.00 away from the all time high of 82.29. Get ready to short when the general market turns out bad. But BIDU is still a strong stock. RSI (Relative Strength Index) is still below 70, not an over bought situation yet. MACD is in positive area. Only the CCI has returned from 200 beck below 100, but last Friday's up movement of the price seemed to change the CCI direction to the upward again. So definitely, wait for the confirmation signal for shorting. If the price breaks above 83.00, I would definitely not short the stock.

ILMN: Closed at 44.83 on last Friday, producing an engulfing pattern. Wait for the price to be in the resistance zone of 46.20 ~ 47.88 to short.

GENZ: In the past 6 trading days, the price has increased from around 54.00 to 70.00. Last Friday, it was the first day that the price closed inside the Bolinger band, and the CCI is returing from 300 back to102. RSI is at 83.78, a definitely over bought reading. I bet on the price to be going back to the middle of the Bolinger band in the next a few days. I might short at 70.00 and set the stop at 71.10 in case I'm wrong. I would have 3 exits if I'm right. The exits are: at 68.10 (10 cents above the gap fill), 65.50 (just before another gap) and 61.00 (just before Fibonacii Retracement of 50%, and above the prior resistance of 60.15) or the middle of the Bolinger band, which ever comes higher.

If I'm stopped out at 71.10, I would then to scale in the short positions at 72.00 and 73.82. The stop will be set at 75.50

INTU: It has broke all resistances, except the all time high of 45.00. It closed at 39.75 last Friday.

MICC: Strong stock in an upward trend. Seven trading days ago, it broke out of resistance of 89.69. The next minor resistance will be around 99.00 and a major resistance is around 110.00 and even stronger resistance at 120.00. If you buy at around 90.00 between weekly EMA(9) and Daily EMA(9), there is still a 10% to 20% growth room. I would get out of the long position before 111.00.

If it does go above 110, I would short 50% of my MICC positions between 113 and 114.00, and another 50% position at 120.00. My stop will be set at 121.00.

VMED: Broke out of 19.31 and is heading towards 24.00 ~ 25 resistance area. Long when it pulls back to 19.30 or Daily EMA(9). But need to get out of the position before it hits 24.00. If you buy at 19.00 ~ 20.00, you may have 20% growth margin.

AMGN: the current price is in lower 1/3 of the 52 week range. Weekly chart shows has been moving up for the last 4 weeks. Daily chart shows an engulfing pattern on last Friday. Buy at 53.74 if it pulls back on Monday. The target is just below 56.00, since it's going to hit the 200 week SMA.

FSLR: It's in a long term slow slippage. Every time it closes above weekly EMA(90), it drops more the next week, wiping out any previous gain. Short between 131.00 and 133.00 (8 Day EMA and 13 day EMA.

KLAC: Bullish engulfing on Friday. Buy if it pulls back to 30.49 or breaks out of 32.21.

FISV: Very bullish. It broke out of 49.45 resistance and ran into a minor 50.77 resistance area last Friday. Because there is a resistance at 50.77, it might pull back to Daily EMA(8). That's the time to buy. Set stop at EMA(13). You want to get out of the long position at 52.00.

ROST: Earnings report on 2010.8.19. Current price is at 60% level in 52 week range. Weekly chart shows it's still close to all time high, but it had triple tops. Last week, it produced a weekly engulfing pattern. Daily chart showed a green bar on Friday. Short at weekly SMA(20) around 54.15. Target 51.00, or get out of the position before earnings report.

MSFT: Earnings report on 2010.7.22. Had a double top formation. The recent month was on the bouncing back. Last week it produced an indecisive doji as it hit the weekly EMA(89) of 26.59. If this week continues bouncing back, short at weekly SMA(200), SMA(50) or SMA(20). I personally would like to short at 27.40 (slightly above the current weekly SMA(20), as price bounces back, the SMA(20) may be calculated higher to 27.40) and set stop at 27.80. Currently, SMA(20) has crossed SMA(50) from above and about to cross the SMA(200). All moving averages are clogging between 26.34 and 27.78.

ISRG: Earnings report on 2010.7.21. It had a tremendous up run for a year. The price had more than doubled. But recent months, it starts to slip down. It's now in the downward trend. Short at 351.00 stop at 360.00

SRCL: Weekly shows just drop off the basing. Daily shows it had header and shoulders. Hope to short at 66.17.

This is just for fun. Don't take it seriously. I'm not advising anything.












发表评论 评论 (1 个评论)

2 回复 老石 2010-8-9 10:10
Review of the last weeks comments:

CHRW: I got in the short position at 67.50 on 2010/8/5 afternoon. On 8/6, a big drop at the market open followed followed by a dramatic bounce back made me nervous. So I closed the position at 67.02. Made only less than 50 cents, my inexperience. I should not have changed my plan.

Based on the inverted hammer formation, I still think along a short position. I would short 50% at 67.20 and another 50% at 67.20. My stop would be 67.50.

BIDU: I did not play. It's looks like too strong to play short, but the price is too high to play long.

ILMN: On 8/1, the 15 minute chart showed a big up movement and followed by a long red candle bar. Fearing that I might miss the boat, I got in the short position prematurely at 45.62. On 8/2 morning it dropped to 44.15 at open, and sharply bounced back. Realizing that I might have been get in the position too early, I closed the short position at 45.00. Made 63 cents. But I acted not according to my plan. Now it's probably in a better position to short. This stock looks very strong, but I would still risk 50 cents to short above 47.70 and set the stop at 48.20.

GENZ: I shorted at 69.99, but I was stopped out at 70.15. It's currently basing. My plan for this stock is: Short at 71.00 with stop at 71.15 and target of 71.11, and another try at 73.50 and stop at 74.15, with first target of 60.00 and second target of 55.00. If the stock reaches the 74.00 ~ 75.00 range at the time of DOW reaches 11,000.00 range, the chances are better. For the people who have to work, I might have to scale in the positions at different prices.

INTU: I shorted at 40.32 and covered at 40.25, fearing of loosing money. Since weekly and monthly charts show the price is breaking out of the resistance, I might consider to buy when it pulls back. For the long position, the target is 44.00, and I would go short at 44.50.

MICC: No activities. The weekly chart shows indecision in the past week. I would buy if the price drops to 9 week EMA, which currently  is at 89.11, or short at 99.00 with a very tight stop. More likely successful short levels are at 115.00 and 120.00.

VMED: No activities.

AMGN: No activities. 8/6 produced a bullish engulfing candle. I would not take any actions until it reaches 58.00 area for a short position.

FSLR: No actions.

KLAC: No actions in the last week. It has broken all important moving averages except for the 200 week moving average. If the next week, it pulls back to 20-day moving average, I would consider long position. I would get out the position at 35.00.

FISV: In the past week, it was basing in a narrow range of 50.00 and 51.00. No directions.

ROST: It did not give us a chance to short at 54.15. Last week, 9 and 20 weekly EMA meet. I would consider to short at 53.27, or long at 49.00

MSFT: No action. But MSFT does look even weaker on the weekly chart. I would wait for 22.50 for long and 37.50 for short.

ISRG: Indecision last week. No action.

SRCL: No actions. I would wait until it breaks out of 67.00 or after developing a double top pattern. Notice that weekly MACD lines are about to cross from the top. Volume of the last week is below average.

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