Stocks on my radar screen for the week of 2010.08.16

作者:老石  于 2010-8-16 13:28 发表于 最热闹的华人社交网络--贝壳村

通用分类:财经理财

关键词:

DISCLAIMERS: This is just for fun. I'm not doing real trading. Trading on most NASDAQ
stocks are gambling in nature, not investment, because they never pay dividends. If
you win, it means someone else looses. The only real winners are the stock exchanges
and the IRS.
 
THIS WEEK:
As the bad economic situations admitted by the government, the market mood has
definitely changed during the last week. DOW, Nasdaq, and S&P all produced a bearish
engulfing pattern on the weekly chart last week. All 2 of the 3 market indexes
closed last week below 50 Week MA. Only DOW closed barely above the 50 Week MA.
The week of 2010.08.16 is critical on whether the markets are going to bounce back
or having a crash.
 
Take S&P 500 as bench mark, if it bounces back from above 20 week MA, the bounce
back is still facing a formidable downward 200 week MA, and the bounce may be
back only to 1,200.00 area. If it slips, we may have a support at 1010.00.
 
But if 1010.00 area can not support the weight of crash by S&P 500, then we can
see 20 week MA cross 50 week MA from above, and the market could crash all the
way back to March of 2009 level.

S&P 500 2010.8.13

So, either way, if the market crashes, bet on short position will be more successful.
If the market bounces back, I may take some long positions for a quick play (will not
hold for more than two weeks). I will definitely liquidate my IRA long positions if
the S&P is close to 1200.00, but I would not even wait for that long.

With bearish bias in my opinions, I plan to do the following in the next week:
short the stocks that are 80% ~ 95 % closed to the 52-week high.

Ticker

Position

Entry

Price

Stop

Loss

Targets

Rationals

Review

PCLN

Short

298 ~ 300

303

245

Weekly doji after a big prior week jump. Daily and week RSI all above 70, showing an overbought situations.


WCRX

Short

29

or when price dropped below Daily 20 MA

29.5

26

Daily chart shows RSI overbought. Weekly CCI also showing (210), a way overbought situation.


ILMN

Short

47.00

or it just drops below 20 Daily MA

47.5

43

Weekly harami pattern. Daily inverted hammer, and closes below 9 EMA for 3 consecutive days. But I wonder if it would bounce back to 47.00.


CTXS

Short

58.7

59.2

54

Weekly overbought. Daily MACD is crossing.


BIDU

Short

83.50 ~

84.50


or it drops below 20 MA

85

68

Weekly bearish engulfing. Both weekly CCI and RSI showing overbought. Daily MACD has crossed from top. This stock has shown more weakness that other four.


If I were aggressive, I would consider shorting at the market open on 2010.8.16.


APOL

Long

37.76

37.45

39.93

Wait at the support level.


GRMN

Long

26.85

26.42

28.6

It's in the support level.


PAYX

Long

24

23.82

25.35

Wait at the support level


 


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