《经济学人》: 台湾新总统开启海峡之门

May 22nd 2008 | TAIPEI
From The Economist print edition
2008年5月22日 台北
《经济学人》印刷版

Taiwan’s new president
台湾新总统

Strait is the gate
海峡之门开启

Ma sets out his stall. China’s buying, and, for now, so are Taiwan’s people
马英九政策出台。目前，获得大陆和岛内民众的认同。

WHEN Taiwan’s new president, Ma Ying-jeou, made his inaugural speech on May 20th, he was listened to closely not just by the voters who elected him in March but by the Chinese government. It was a foretaste of the job he has taken on. Central to the task will be to balance the pursuit of better China ties with safeguarding Taiwan’s sovereignty.

5月20 日，台湾新任总统马英九发表就职演说。此时倾听演说的不光是三月大选中支持他的台湾选民，大陆政府也正细听其言。他的工作才刚刚开始，其任内最重大的问题是如何在发展两岸关系与保持台湾主权之间取得平衡。

Mr Ma, 57, a Harvard-educated lawyer, succeeds Chen Shui-bian of the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Mr Chen, divested of presidential immunity, now faces a corruption investigation. Mr Ma pleased China by stressing the common heritage shared by people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait. He courted local opinion, too, by praising the island’s four centuries of history and its new, vibrant democracy. But he distanced himself from Mr Chen’s confrontational policy towards the mainland.

57岁的马英九曾是一位律师，毕业于哈佛大学。其前任，独派民进党的陈水扁，已丧失总统刑事豁免权，目前正面临贪腐案调查。马英九一方面强调两岸的共同传统，由此得到大陆的欣赏；另一方面，他对台湾本岛四百年的历史和这一新兴民主体的活力大加赞叹，并因此赢得岛内民意。同时，他刻意同其前任对抗大陆的政策保持距离。

Mr Ma reaffirmed the “1992 consensus” with China, under which both sides agree to accept there is “one China”, but differ over how to define it. In other words, the dispute over sovereignty is set aside in the interests of better relations. So he is committing himself to the maintenance of the present limbo, of Taiwan’s de facto but not de jure independence. He urged China to “seize the historic opportunity to achieve peace and co-prosperity”. Two days later a senior Chinese official gushed about the “major positive changes” in relations with Taiwan. Mr Ma’s campaign made much of the economic benefits of better relations with China.

马英九重申了与大陆达成的“九二共识”，即“一中各表”。这也意味着双方搁置主权争议，借此改善关系。他的政策是保持台湾目前的尴尬地位，即事实独立却无法理确认。他呼吁大陆“抓住当前难得的历史机遇，从今天开始，共同开启和平共荣的历史新页”。两天之后，大陆一位高级官员高调表示两岸关系发生了“重大积极变化”。马英九选战的胜利很大程度上也归功于同大陆的良好互动。

Cross-strait talks should resume next month. In early July non-stop charter flights between the mainland and Taiwan are to start, and the first mainland tourists should arrive. But Mr Ma says he also wants to see progress on the space China allows Taiwan in the international arena. He may have a long wait. On the eve of his inauguration, Taiwan was again blocked by China from becoming an observer at the World Health Assembly in Geneva.

下月，两岸将重启磋商。七月上旬，两岸直航包机将首航，首批大陆观光客也将抵台。马英九则进一步希望大陆能在国际上给台更大活动空间，但目前似乎仍遥遥无期。就在他就职前不久，大陆再度出手，阻止了台在日内瓦召开的“世界卫生大会”获得观察员资格。

China is delighted to see the back of the DPP, preferring to deal with its former nemesis, Mr Ma’s governing party, the Kuomintang or KMT. But the KMT is split over its approach to the Communists, which may cripple the government’s authority in cross-strait talks. China is a past-master of divide-and-rule strategies.

大陆乐见民进党下野，更愿意同当年的对头，马英九的国民党打交道。但针对国共两党政策，国民党内仍存在分歧，并有可能削弱台政府在两岸磋商中的影响力。一直以来，大陆就善于运用分而治之的策略。

In the latest high-level contact since Mr Ma’s election, the KMT’s chairman, Wu Poh-hsiung, is soon to visit Hu Jintao, China’s president and Communist Party leader. Mr Ma, however, has tried to stamp his personal authority on cross-strait relations with his choice of chairman for the government’s China-policy department, the Mainland Affairs Council. She is Lai Shin-yuan, an independence-minded former legislator. This irked the KMT’s pro-China lobby.

马英九当选后，国共两党的高层往来仍在继续，国民党主席吴伯雄即将拜会中国国家主席、中共中央总书记胡锦涛。但马英九试图在两岸政策中发挥影响力，任命曾经的独派立委赖幸媛为台“陆委会”主委。这一举措使得国民党内的亲大陆派大为不快。In his 20-minute speech, Mr Ma kept using the word “Taiwan” (as opposed to the old name, “the Republic of China”) to show his determination to protect the island. The aim was to map out a cunning path between “one China” and “Taiwan identity”. He will be beset from all sides as he tries to keep to it.

在二十分钟的演说中，马英九一直使用“台湾”，而非从前的“中华民国”，借此显示其保护台湾主体性的决心。他希望最终能在“一个中国”和“台湾主体”间找到折衷。而未来，来自各方的压力将使这条道路坎坷难行。

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