特朗普总统对中国意味着什么?- ROB SCHMITZ

作者:chineseman  于 2016-11-11 19:06 发表于 最热闹的华人社交网络--贝壳村

通用分类:网络文摘|已有6评论

关键词:中国

特朗普总统对中国意味着什么?

ROB SCHMITZ

 

中国国家控制的媒体对唐纳德·特朗普的胜利的反应似乎近乎是欣喜的。新华社写道,2016年总统选举“发出了一个明确的信号,美国政治制度正在栽跟头”,中央电视台定期客人张召忠在他的微博页面蹦出“特朗普胜利了,正如预期!。

张, 解放军国防大学军事教授,是个中国海军少将,他继续写道:“特朗普不遵守规则,他很难预测,但有一件事我敢肯定:他会把世界第一的经济变成第二,是的,他会的!“

政治

这些是唐纳德·特朗普头100天要做的

作为一个候选人,特朗普被中国国家媒体认为是“小丑”,是不应认真对待的那些在竞选中承诺对中国商品征收关税的人。但是现在特朗普赢了,中国的领导层很可能需要对特朗普总统做长期,艰难的观察, 看他如何改变他们与世界上最大的经济体(仍然是)的关系。

这不容易找到答案。与他之前的美国总统不同,特朗普没有公共服务的记录可以用来分析。他一路竞选的口号从未改变过。

特朗普把中国称为货币操纵者和肮脏交易机会主义者。

“我们不能继续允许中国强奸我们的国家,”特朗普5月初在缅因州的竞选站评论中国的贸易政策, “这是世界历史上最大的偷窃!”

除了激烈的竞选修辞,还有顾问的暗示,特朗普总统对中国可能意味着什么。加州大学尔湾分校的经济学家彼得·纳瓦罗(Navarro)是其中之一。

双向

三种当选总统特朗普可能摇动贸易的方式

特朗普亲自帮助用纳瓦罗的书和视频纪录片, “来自中国的死刑”,一个严厉的看法,来描绘中国对美国制造业的影响。这个预告片给出了一把中国匕首插进美国地图并绘制血迹的特写画面。

“特朗普将永远不会再在外交政策的祭坛上牺牲美国经济”, 签类似像北美自由贸易协定这样不利的贸易协议,允许中国进入世贸组织,以及通过提议的 [跨太平洋伙伴关系],纳瓦罗本周早些时候在《外交政策》写道。

为了打击中国的地缘政治影响,纳瓦罗和共同作者亚历山大·格雷批评奥巴马政府对亚洲的“枢轴”缺乏牙齿,承诺作为总统,特朗普将重建美国海军,增加超过70艘舰船到目前的舰队,以保护在南海的贸易渠道。

平行

一个谨慎的世界在寻找通向唐纳德·特朗普的外交政策线索

这个评估似乎与特朗普的竞选言辞背道而驰,他暗示重新评估美国军事联盟,可能使泛美在亚太地区结束。

当然,问题是,中国观察家们除了特朗普的竞选争论和从没见过他们老板的顾问的写作之外,没有什么可以继续。这可能是特朗普自己还不清楚如何对待中国。

很清楚的是,比以往任何时候都在扩大国家的军事能力的中国领导人,将更加仔细地观察继任总统特朗普。

What Will A Trump Presidency Mean For China?

ROB SCHMITZ

 

The response of China's state-controlled media to Donald Trump's victory seemed almost gleeful. Xinhua wrote that the 2016 presidential election "sent a clear signal that the U.S. political system is faltering," and regular CCTV guest Zhang Shaozhang gushed "Trump wins, as expected!" on his Weibo page.

Zhang, a military professor at the People's Liberation Army National Defense University who holds the rank of rear admiral in China's navy, went on to write: "Trump doesn't play by the rules and he's hard to predict, but there's one thing I'm certain of: He'll turn the world's number-one economy into number two. Yes he can!"

POLITICS

Here Is What Donald Trump Wants To Do In His First 100 Days

As a candidate, Trump was considered "a clown" by China's state media, someone whose campaign pledges to slap tariffs on Chinese goods shouldn't be taken seriously. But now that Trump has won, China's leadership is likely taking a long, hard look at how a Trump presidency may change their relationship with (still) the world's largest economy.

It won't be easy to find answers. Unlike U.S. presidents before him, Trump has no record in public service to analyze. And his rhetoric on the campaign trail has never veered from the vitriolic.

Trump has labeled China a currency manipulator and a dirty-dealing opportunist.

"We can't continue to allow China to rape our country," Trump said of China's trade policies at a campaign stop in Maine in early May. "It's the greatest theft in the history of the world!"

Aside from heated campaign rhetoric, though, there are hints from advisers of what a Trump presidency might mean for China. Peter Navarro, an economist at the University of California, Irvine, is one of them.

THE TWO-WAY

3 Ways President-Elect Trump May Shake Up Trade Policy

Trump himself has helped plug Navarro's book and video documentary, Death by China, a scathing look into China's impact on the U.S. manufacturing sector. The trailer features an animation of a Chinese dagger plunging into a map of the United States and drawing blood.

"Trump will never again sacrifice the U.S. economy on the altar of foreign policy by entering into bad trade deals like the North American Free Trade Agreement, allowing China into the World Trade Organization and passing the proposed [Trans-Pacific Partnership]," wrote Navarro in Foreign Policy earlier this week.

On countering China's geopolitical influence, Navarro and co-author Alexander Gray criticize the Obama administration's "pivot" to Asia as lacking teeth, promising that as president, Trump would rebuild the U.S. Navy, adding more than 70 ships to its current fleet to protect trade channels in the South China Sea.

PARALLELS

A Wary World Looks For Clues To Donald Trump's Foreign Policy

This assessment appears counter to Trump's campaign rhetoric, in which he hinted at re-evaluating U.S. military alliances, possibly bringing Pax Americana to an end in the Asia-Pacific region.

The problem, of course, is that China observers have little to go on aside from Trump's campaign polemics and writings from advisers who have never met their boss. It's possible that Trump himself isn't clear yet on how to manage China.

What is clear is that China's leaders, who are spending more than ever on expanding the country's military capabilities, will be watching President-elect Trump more carefully than ever.

 


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发表评论 评论 (6 个评论)

1 回复 徐福男儿 2016-11-11 23:56
看到一篇报道,说川普当选,可能为他在中国的房地产生意扫清障碍,加快进程。
2 回复 chineseman 2016-11-12 02:04
徐福男儿: 看到一篇报道,说川普当选,可能为他在中国的房地产生意扫清障碍,加快进程。
他在中国有房产?
2 回复 徐福男儿 2016-11-12 03:13
chineseman: 他在中国有房产?
据说前几年进展一直不顺利,现在中共的智库金灿荣说中国最擅于同商人打交道。
2 回复 borninheaven 2016-11-12 06:04
为中国的地产商正名了!别老是怪地产商, 如今地产商当美国总统啦
0 回复 chineseman 2016-11-12 08:13
borninheaven: 为中国的地产商正名了!别老是怪地产商, 如今地产商当美国总统啦
白人红脖子给体制扔的一个燃烧弹,反正他们自己的命不值钱。
1 回复 borninheaven 2016-11-12 08:51
chineseman: 白人红脖子给体制扔的一个燃烧弹,反正他们自己的命不值钱。
中国人一下子懂了啥叫大意失荆州, 三国那年代毕竟太古远了

facelist doodle 涂鸦板

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