比较清醒的美国人

比较清醒的美国人

在一个著名的美国网站WHAT REALLY HAPPENED(WRH) 上看到美国作家Fred Reed今天的署名文章。

他把美国和中国的现状作了一个客观的比较，没有“中国威胁论” ，没有“人民币操纵论” ，没有“沃尔马廉价产品论” ，没有“中国抢美国人工作论” 等等论。

他对美国政府自身的错误决策作了客观的分析，得出为什么中国在各方面大步踏进，而美国一直原地踏步甚至倒退的原因。

其中有一段让人拍案叫绝，他说：

“注意到，中国有一个完美的政府，一个聪明的独断专行的政府，他们总是关注着自己国家的进步。而美国政府关注的是那些自私自利的游说集团和华尔街的抢劫者们的利益。注意，中国由一批工程师领导着，而美国是由律师掌权。”

Note that China has that perfect government, an intelligent dictatorship concerned with advancing the country. The American government consists of self-interested lobbies and Wall Street looters. China is run by engineers, America by lawyers. Watch.

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翻译原文：

 在讨论美国衰退之前，让我叙述一段故事，也许带有悲观的预言色彩，但我相信它，因为我喜欢它。这是一个关于捕猎猴子的故事。某些部落擅长制作一种很重的罐子，开口正好可以容下猴子的手；但是当猴子握紧拳头的时候，则不能撤出。他们随后在罐子里放入猴子喜欢吃的食品。猴子把手伸进去，抓住食品，但是退不出来，直到猎人赶来，逮住他们，吃掉这些猴子。

　　
　　让我们来看看我们的政治途径。美国整个国家就像一个猴子，不放手。党派完蛋了，孩子们，但是我们还不能适应这种变化。
　　
　　例如，当人们发现他们再也买不起SUV，McMansion的时候，他们仍然处于购买那些荒唐的物品的狂热的攀比性消费中，只不过换了用信用卡支付的方式。猴子不放手。他们被利用了。
　　
　　国内政治也是如此。美国也曾对毒品宣战了半个世纪，但是徒劳无功，不得不接受毒品成为经济体系不可分割的一部分。产生的邪恶是巨大的。但是猴子不放手。
　　
　　国际上猴子原则同样让我们如坐针毡。国家已经无可挽回地向一个区域性军事、经济和外交强权方向发展。没有奇迹，也没有中国那样可以想象但是不太可能出现的天灾，美国只能变成中型的土豆。我们不可以改变什么，但是我们试图以破产的代价改变之。我们不放手。
　　
　　如果我们的眼光可以透过《读者》式的《福克斯新闻》的爱国主义，透过高中生拥护Sarah Palin(美国共和党参选人)的拉拉队，甚至穿越国家的边界，那么这一切都清清楚楚摆在面前。
　　
　　按照中国标准，美国是个小国家，人口不过其四分之一。他们的经济增长率接近两位数。诚然，这种增长会减速，也许不会。除非天灾人祸发生，问题不是中国会不会超过美国，而是什么时候超过美国。告诉我，为什么这一切不可能。
　　
　　所有的强权都来自于经济强权。美国衰退、嬉戏、吮大拇指的时候，中国在投资，到处投资。这是硬道理，没什么说不过去的。都是精明的商业游戏。
　　
　　不要低估这些眼角内褶(指蒙古族的体貌特征)的人们。我几年前在台湾曾经与中国人共同生活过。我喜欢他们，现在也是。我知道他们聪明，有纪律，好学，实干--也充满民族主义，对种族很敏感。恩，我们并不认可这些态度(可能指民族主义)。但是我们如何想无关紧要(可能指并不能改变中国人的民族主义想法)。
　　
　　

　　注意中国有一个完美的政府，聪明的专制，关心他们国家的进步。美国政府门前充满了为自己利益而来的游说者，和华尔街的掠夺者。中国是工程师在治理。美国是律师在治理。
　　
　　美国正处在无情的自杀过程中。如果国家不制造东西，经济是无从谈起的。然而制造业正从美国海岸线撤离。造船业，钢铁，消费者电子工业，铁路，都没了。你可能还觉得你的惠普手提电脑是美国产品，但是更可能的是，每个元件都是海外制造的，并且在台湾组装。
　　
　　整个国家，如同以往，只知道向内看，不理解也不明白再也不能以抗拒“共产主义” 来掀起美国人对中国的仇视。
　　
　　美国在世界上欠债最多，而中国是最大的债权国。我们可能还不清我们欠的，所以要么欠着，要么通胀。不知道还有没有第三种选择。然而，政府还在花钱，花钱，花钱，借钱，借钱，借钱。没有人能控制。没人关心。他们只关心自己的口袋。然而。。。
　　
　　理性地说，该是抛弃那些我们买不起的奢侈品了。但是，不。美国还在买那些它买不起的东西，继续扮演他扮不下去的角色，因为这将伤害国家的虚荣，因为唱片销量榜上我们不再排名第一。(new kid on the block是畅销唱片)。猴子不放手。
　　
　　套在美国脖子上的磨盘是五角大楼。喂饱军队合同的直接成本可以完全拖死正在下沉的经济体：本年度高达7200亿美元，还加上1200亿美元消耗在没有打完的战争上，还有那些灰色的项目，老兵管理费，等等。恐怕10000亿美元才能打住。。。。。。The more perceptive note the opportunity cost of wasting so much engineering talent, so much money for research and development, on martial zoom-wowees.
　　
　　中国，俄罗斯，穆斯林世界，拉丁美洲，和所有抵制美国的力量一定正在欣赏这一奇观吧。烧钱，烧钱，哦那些眼睛睁得比铜铃大的傻子...
　　
　　虚荣。北朝鲜并没有与美国接壤，平壤也不会派遣军队越过阿肯色州界，但是我们仍然在南朝鲜驻军。我们驻军，是因为我们认为我们生来就是要统治这个世界的。猴子不放手。
　　

　　
　　我们的现实选择，是撤出军队，或者直线向下沉沦。但是我们不可能撤军。一旦你的经济严重依赖那些不具有生产力的花销，你就撤不出来了。比如，从南朝鲜撤军30，000看起来很明智，但是这只会增加国内的失业率，而失业率居高不下，已经很危险了。因为军队对美国国防毫无帮助，因此让这些不需要的士兵失业，也许只能加速武装叛乱。
　　
　　更糟糕的是那些环绕着大型军队基地而兴起的、为军队及军属提供后勤服务的小镇。关闭基地，这些小镇就会死亡。关闭Lejeune营地，Jacksonville、Fort Bragg、Fayetteville、Fort Hood、Killeen这些小镇就会凋敝。另外，大型公司，例如洛克希德-马丁，波音公司，以及其他公司，他们在民用经济中未必具备竞争力，已经成为义务性的军备供应商。削减他们的项目，你将会得到数以万计的失业人口，而他们在民用部门都找不到工作。
　　
　　联邦官僚机构也面临同样的问题。雇佣众多，无所产出。政治家们嗡嗡作响，声称要“小政府”。何以可能？削减教育部、或者城市发展住房部，或者商务部？那么这些人又到哪里去？
　　
　　我们可以假装目前的衰退是暂时的，并不是富裕社会走向衰落得标志，就像人老珠黄仍然可以涂脂抹粉，并且希望男人们看不出来。我们可以继续烧钱，而别人正在成长；我们可以继续用信用卡购买他们的产品，细水长流地购买。。。猴子们不肯放手。
　　
　　谁要是说我们应该卖掉房子，接受现实，我们就说谁不爱美国。那么好吧，等着账单到期吧。
　　
　　2011年1月13日
　　Fred， Austin

原文如下：

by Fred Reed
by Fred Reed 

Pondering Whither America, I reflected on a story, probably apocryphal but which I am going to believe because I like it, about catching monkeys. Tribesmen somewhere craft a heavy pot with a hole in it large enough that a monkey could insert an open hand, but not withdraw a closed fist. They then put monkey food in the pot. The monkey reaches in, grabs the food and, refusing to let go when the hunters approach, is caught and eaten.

Here we have our politics in a paragraph. The American national monkey can’t let go. The party is over, boys and girls, but we aren’t going to adapt.

For example: When people recently found that they could no longer afford the SUVs, the McMansions, the buying of absurdities in a frenzy of competitive consumerism, they just put it on the credit card. The monkey can’t let go. And now they are screwed.

Same-same domestic policy. The US has played War-on-Drugs for half a century, with no results but to make drugs an integral part of the economy. The evils engendered are great. Yet the monkey can’t let go.

It is internationally that the monkey principle really bites. The country is well on its way to being a merely regional power militarily, economically, and diplomatically. Short of a miracle, short of a conceivable but unlikely catastrophe in China, Americans will soon be medium potatoes. There is nothing we can do about it, but we will bankrupt ourselves trying. We can’t let go.

If you look beyond the Reader’s Digest patriotism of Fox News, and the high-school cheerleading of little Sarah Palin, if you look beyond the national borders, all of this is obvious.

By Chinese standards, America is a small country, having a quarter of its population. Their economy grows at close to double digits. Yes, it may slow down, or it may not. Short of unforeseen disaster, the question is not whether but when the Chinese economy will dwarf the American economy. Tell me why this is not true.

All power springs from economic power. While America decays, plays, and sucks its thumb, China invests. Everywhere. There is nothing unprincipled in this. It is just intelligent commerce.

Do not underestimate these people of the epicanthic fold. I have lived among the Chinese, in Taiwan years ago. I liked them, and still do. I know them to be smart, disciplined, studious, practical – as well as nationalistic and very racially conscious. No, we do not think these attitudes proper. It doesn’t matter what we think.

Note that China has that perfect government, an intelligent dictatorship concerned with advancing the country. The American government consists of self-interested lobbies and Wall Street looters. China is run by engineers, America by lawyers. Watch.

The US is midway through an inexorable suicide. If a country does not manufacture things, it does not have an economy, and manufacturing has fled American shores. Ship-building, steel, consumer electronics, railroads: gone. You may think your HP laptop is an American product, but in all likelihood every component was made overseas and it was assembled in Taiwan.

The country as a whole, as always, looks inwards and doesn’t understand, doesn’t know what stirs without. Communism no longer protects America from Chinese competition.

America is the world’s greatest debtor nation, China the greatest creditor. We cannot possibly repay what we owe, so we must either default or inflate. If another choice exists, I am unaware of it. And yet the government spends, spends, spends, and borrows, borrows, borrows. No one is in charge. No one cares. All line their own pockets. Wait.

Rationally, this would seem a good time to let go of unaffordable luxuries. But no. The US continues to buy things it can’t pay for, to play roles it can no longer maintain, because it pains the national vanity no longer to be the biggest kid on the block. The monkey can’t let go.

The millstone around the American neck is the Pentagon. The direct cost alone of feeding the military contractors is almost mortal to a sinking economy: $720 billion this year, plus another $120 billion requested for the unending wars, plus huge black programs, the Veterans Administration, and so on. A trillion wilting green ones, call it. The more perceptive note the opportunity cost of wasting so much engineering talent, so much money for research and development, on martial zoom-wowees.

China, Russia, the Moslem world, Latin America and all the rest who detest the US must be enjoying the spectacle. Spend on, spend on, oh round-eyed fools….

Vanity. We do not garrison South Korea because Pyong Yang may send its troops across our common border into Arkansas. We do it because we think it our birthright to rule the world. The monkey cannot let go.

Our practical choice is between retracting the military or going down hard. But we cannot retract. Once you have made your economy dependent on huge unproductive expenditures, there is no quitting. It might seem wise for example to reduce the military rolls by the 30,000 troops in South Korea. But they would simply increase the rate of unemployment, already dangerously high. Since most of the military contributes nothing to the defense of the United States, releasing all unneeded soldiers into joblessness would probably precipitate an armed rebellion.

There is worse. Towns spring up around large bases to supply the troops and their families. Close the bases, and the towns die. Closing Camp Lejeune would kill Jacksonville; Fort Bragg, Fayetteville; Fort Hood, Killeen. Further, huge companies – Lockheed-Martin, much of Boeing, and dozens of others – being unable to compete in the civilian economy, have become obligate military suppliers. Cut their big programs and you unemploy tens of thousands for whom there are no civilian jobs.

The federal bureaucracy is much the same, employing vast numbers yet producing nothing. Politicians drone about wanting “smaller government.” How? Eliminate the Departments of Education, or Housing and Urban Development, or Commerce – and where do the people go?

We can pretend that the current recession is temporary, and not a manifestation of dying opulence, just as a fading beauty can pile on the make-up and hope that men don’t notice. We can spend while others grow, buy their goods on credit – for a little while longer. The monkey can’t let go.

And any who say that we ought to put our house in order and come to terms with reality? They will be said to Hate America. Well and good, until the bill comes due.

January 13, 2011

Fred Reed is author of Nekkid in Austin: Drop Your Inner Child Down a Well and A Brass Pole in Bangkok: A Thing I Aspire to Be. His latest book is Curmudgeing Through Paradise: Reports from a Fractal Dung Beetle. Visithis blog.

Copyright © 2011 Fred Reed