人民币,美元,股市最近有点乱

作者:fibonnachi  于 2017-8-3 08:25 发表于 最热闹的华人社交网络--贝壳村

通用分类:热点杂谈|已有7评论

关键词:人民币, 美元

人民币疾风劲草,从51号从6.9逆势一路涨至6.71。 死卡严防的堵住外汇外流奏效了吗当然。


首富清仓大甩卖,并向祖国保证投资重点全放在国内。史上最有钱的航空公司海外并购全部收手俨然是明确的信号,5万的外汇额度完全是小玩闹,大窟窿堵住胜过千万个小玩闹。值得注意的是,中国经济并没有实质性的变化,钢一吨也没少炼,房子也没打折。

 

 

反观美元,2017新年开始已经一路下跌,美元指数103已经是昨日黄花,今天已跌至关键关口的92左右,现处在自20155月以来的关键支撑区域,


目前看,向下的动能还没有失去甚至减弱的迹象。货币的走向实际也是外部世界认知一个国家的关键指标,欧洲经济的复苏带动了近期欧元上涨,美国除了经济,政治的不确定性也拉弱了美元,目前除了盖美墨边境的围墙的小目标,其他诸如健保,减税,大规模基建等关键政纲均陷入了泥沼。川大爷火气大,身边炒人无数,新找的冲基金大佬干了10天幕僚长就卷铺盖跑了。剩下的北韩核问题以及和普京互掐就更不用说了。


市场不喜欢不确定,至少近期美元的走势是悲观的。美元指数如果不能再92附近稳定住,这波起于2008年的美元反弹就分不清是阶段性调整还是就此玩完了。川大爷随那么一说的弱势美元可就真成真了。


别忘了,美元现在一个30年长期下降通道中。

 

 

股市目前贵,罗伯特.席勒前几天CNBC访问讲的已经很清楚了。目前的价位是1929年大萧条和2000年科技股泡沫以外的第三个高点,按他的原话,贵,但还不是超级贵。长期价值投资的投资人,是时间考虑下调整投资组合,鸡蛋都分开放了。席勒是真正的大师,他关于人心理和社会因素如何影响股市的见解深邃精辟。就如巴菲特成功的投资,除了价值投资炉火纯青的技术,其超越世人的心理无出其二。


 市场不能预测。顺便看了眼芝加哥波动指数,目前的市场波动性已降至1991年来的最低点,市场风平浪静,完全看不出恐慌的迹象。暴风前的寂静?我又杞人忧天想多了,深吸了一口气,晚上回去喝点啤酒压压惊吧。


以上信息仅供阅读参考,非正式投资建议。作者建议投资人在做投资决定前咨询专业投资顾问

作者简介:Sen Zhang 张森,投资顾问,现任资产投资管理公司投资经理。张森具备多年美元资产投资和管理经验,长期为客户提供专业的风险评估和投资策略,包括股票,债券,房地产和外汇等热门投资领域。www.corrigitcpital.com 

作者微信:corrigit

http://corrigitcapital.com/


高兴

感动

同情

搞笑

难过

拍砖

支持
1

鲜花

刚表态过的朋友 (1 人)

发表评论 评论 (7 个评论)

5 回复 SecondThought 2017-8-3 22:23
"别忘了,美元现在一个30年长期下降通道中。" ............ USD is in a secular bull market that started in 2011. The current down leg is only a part of the consolidations after a leg up since 2014. Chart wise, the range building may still have some months to go before the completion. The next top will be 122 on the dollar index, which was the top in 2001. The previous secular bear market for the dollar started in 1985 (the Plaza Accord) and ended in 2011 after America went through two asset bubbles, one for technology and internet in late 1990s and the other for the housing market that triggered the subprime mortgage crisis.
3 回复 SecondThought 2017-8-3 23:31
"席勒是真正的大师,他关于人心理和社会因素如何影响股市的见解深邃精辟。" ........... Robert Shiller's work may only be a masterpiece in academic world but offer very little predictability in the real world. The valuations of most asset classes are well above their historical means because of historically low interest rates. The stock is only one of them but cheaper than the bond at least. If inflation does not go back to its long-term mean around 4% a year, say, within next 20 years, the valuation of equity will likely stay well above the average of the Shiller P/E ratio for many years.
3 回复 fibonnachi 2017-8-4 01:30
thank you for your thoughtful comments , Dr Second Thought    !
3 回复 SecondThought 2017-8-4 06:12
You are very welcome. Actually Fibonnachi ratios are much more useful than the Shiller's ratio.
3 回复 fibonnachi 2017-8-4 06:46
SecondThought: You are very welcome. Actually Fibonnachi ratios are much more useful than the Shiller's ratio.
you mean Fibonacci ?
4 回复 SecondThought 2017-8-4 08:28
Yes, that was my typo. The correct spelling should be Fibonacci. The most useful ratios are 0.382, 0.500 and 0.618. These are the levels of the retracements (or called counter-trend pullbacks or corrections) that traders focus on. If we apply the Fibonacci ratio on the USD index. The recent leg up started at 91.88 in 2014 and topped out at 103.82 in 2016. The 0.500 retracement should bring the dollar index back to 91.38. The dollar correction in the first half of 2016 ended at 91.88. So the current correction may end in the 91.38-91.88 zone (But TA is not an accurate math). USD index closed today at 92.71 and is oversold on the weekly chart so that it may bottom soon although the base building may have further to go. The current dollar weakness is a good news to investors. The global economy is in good shape and there are profitable opportunities in many other countries. However money will flow back to U.S. once global economy starts slowing down because both U.S. treasuries and U.S. large-cap stocks are the safe havens. By that time, the financial market will be volatile for some time. As with RMB, the Chinese currency will still be significantly overvalued even with a 10:1 against USD, provided that RMB is traded in a free market. With a 16%-17% share in global economy, almost half of the money (if all converted to USD at the current exchange rates) in the world is Chinese RMB. Chinese central bank will continue to manipulate the exchange rate until its reserve dries up, which may take quite long time.
3 回复 fibonnachi 2017-8-5 01:09
SecondThought: Yes, that was my typo. The correct spelling should be Fibonacci. The most useful ratios are 0.382, 0.500 and 0.618. These are the levels of the retrac
nice input, I should buy you a lunch (:

facelist doodle 涂鸦板

您需要登录后才可以评论 登录 | 注册

关于本站 | 隐私政策 | 免责条款 | 版权声明 | 联络我们 | 刊登广告 | 转手机版 | APP下载

Copyright © 2001-2013 海外华人中文门户:倍可亲 (http://www.backchina.com) All Rights Reserved.

程序系统基于 Discuz! X3.1 商业版 优化 Discuz! © 2001-2013 Comsenz Inc. 更新:GMT+8, 2019-6-4 00:47

倍可亲服务器位于美国圣何塞、西雅图和达拉斯顶级数据中心,为更好服务全球网友特统一使用京港台时间

返回顶部