周末财经纵横(06/28/2009)

上周股市又是四阴一阳,
上周一世界银行调低全球gdp预期,一下子让s&p 下降3.1%,

随后3 跌, 1 升,上周四,股市猛烈反弹使上周股市跌幅减小:
道下跌1.2%, s&p 下降0.3%,naz 上升0.6%.

虽然本周因国庆放假一天,但馀下的四个交易日会更加繁忙:
周二:采购经理指数(40,低于50 是衰退),消费者信心指数(57);
周三:供给经理生产协会指数(45),建筑业支出(-0.5);
周四:就业状况(减少345k 工作机会,失业率9.6%),失业救济(+605K),工厂定单(+1.4).

股市到目前阶段反应了经济不再恶化,
假设经济真的恢复了,年底在9000 点(道),我是相信的;
假设经济停止在这里,L 型,道的交易范围在7500-8500;
假设经济没有恢复,道至少会从新探试6500.
我倾向于经济真的恢复.

经济的复苏取决于房事,房事估计开始见底.

 

本周股市的交易范围我的估计在8100-8600.
估计本月离我的8000 点以下收市差150-300 点的样子,
但是8000 点以下收市在7月会到来的,因为经济和赢利不足以支持道在8000点以上.

 

行业板块方面还是比较看好石油,因为用油高峰已经到来,油价的预计在桶/$75.

 

There is a river called THE RIVER OF NO RETURN
Sometimes it's peaceful and sometimes wild and free!
Love is a trav'ler on THE RIVER OF NO RETURN
Swept on for ever to be lost in the stormy sea
Wail-a-ree I can hear the river call [ no return, no return ]
Where the roarin' waters fall wail-a-ree
I can hear my lover call come to me [ no return, no return ]
I lost my love on the river and for ever my heart will yearn
Gone gone for ever down THE RIVER OF NO RETURN
Wail-a-ree wail-a-re-e-ee
She'll/He'll never return to me! [ no return, no return, no return ]