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在世界上大多数国家,从大萧条的复苏开始于1933年,[9]在美国,恢复在1933年年初开始,[9]但美国并没有恢复到1929年国民生产总值超过十年,仍然有失业在1940年,尽管从1933年的25%的高失业率降到约15%。
经济学家之间关于美国经济扩张继续通过罗斯福年(和1937年的经济衰退,中断)的动力没有达成共识。
在主流经济学家普遍的看法是,罗斯福的新政政策是造成或加速经济复苏,尽管他的政策从来没有侵略性,足以使经济完全走出衰退。一些经济学家已经也称为注意力从性通货膨胀的预期和上升的名义利息率,罗斯福的话和行动预示着规划的效果。[39][40]这些相同的导致在1937年中断的经济衰退的通货再膨胀政策的回滚。一个有助于扭转通货再膨胀的政策是1935年“银行法”,从而有效地提高了准备金要求,造成了货币紧缩政策,有助于阻止恢复[41][42]国内生产总值在1938年返回其向上倾斜。
据克里斯蒂娜罗默,巨大的国际黄金流入造成的货币供应量增长是美国经济复苏的重要来源,经济出现自我纠正的迹象。黄金流入,部分原因是由于美元贬值,部分原因是由于在欧洲的政治局势的恶化。[43]在他们的著作,一个美国,米尔顿弗里德曼和安娜J ·施瓦茨货币史也归因于恢复货币因素,并认为,这是多少钱的管理不善,由联邦储备系统的放缓。美联储主席伯南克的现任主席同意货币因素,无论是在全球经济衰退和最终恢复起到了重要的角色。[44]伯南克还认为,体制因素,特别是金融体系的重建和重组,发挥强有力的作用[ 45],并指出,抑郁症需要在国际视野检查。[46]经济学家哈罗德L.科尔和Lee E. Ohanian,相信抑郁症四年后经济已恢复正常,除了继续令人沮丧的影响, [47]点手指缺乏价格和工资下降的灵活性,罗斯福政府的政策,如全国工业复兴法鼓励。
Turning point and recovery
In most countries of the world, recovery from the Great Depression began in 1933.[9] In the U.S., recovery began in early 1933,[9] but the U.S. did not return to 1929 GNP for over a decade and still had an unemployment rate of about 15% in 1940, albeit down from the high of 25% in 1933.
There is no consensus among economists regarding the motive force for the U.S. economic expansion that continued through most of the Roosevelt years (and the 1937 recession that interrupted it).
The common view among mainstream economists is that Roosevelt's New Deal policies either caused or accelerated the recovery, although his policies were never aggressive enough to bring the economy completely out of recession. Some economists have also called attention to the positive effects from expectations of reflation and rising nominal interest rates that Roosevelt's words and actions portended.[39][40] It was the rollback of those same reflationary policies that led to the interrupting recession of 1937.[41] One contributing policy that reversed reflation was the Banking Act of 1935, which effectively raised reserve requirements, causing a monetary contraction that helped to thwart the recovery.[42] GDP returned to its upward slope in 1938.
According to Christina Romer, the money supply growth caused by huge international gold inflows was a crucial source of the recovery of the United States economy, and that the economy showed little sign of self-correction. The gold inflows were partly due to devaluation of the U.S. dollar and partly due to deterioration of the political situation in Europe.[43] In their book, A Monetary History of the United States, Milton Friedman and Anna J. Schwartz also attributed the recovery to monetary factors, and contended that it was much slowed by poor management of money by the Federal Reserve System. Current Chairman of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke agrees that monetary factors played important roles both in the worldwide economic decline and eventual recovery.[44] Bernanke, also sees a strong role for institutional factors, particularly the rebuilding and restructuring of the financial system,[45] and points out that the Depression needs to be examined in international perspective.[46] Economists Harold L. Cole and Lee E. Ohanian, believe that the economy should have returned to normal after four years of depression except for continued depressing influences, and point the finger to the lack of downward flexibility in prices and wages, encouraged by Roosevelt Administration policies such as the National Industrial Recovery Act.[47]