Research on the event of LIGO gravitational wave

Research on the event of LIGO gravitational wave

--- Is it a "gravitational wave" or "earthquake precursor wave"? ---

Author: Dajiong Lu

Foreword

    The laser interferometer is not only able to record seismic waves, but also a variety of earthquake precursors (Reference book "Impending Earthquake Prediction" by Dajiong Lu). The paper about detecting gravitational waves published in the name of "LIGO Scientific Collaboration and Virgo Collaboration" only mentioned that they considered the exclusion of seismic waves, but not whether they considered the exclusion of earthquake precursors or other sources from the Earth's interior. At least we did not see that and it is not entirely impossible  ......

    Accordingly, we ask whether the detected "gravitational waves" may be a kind of "earthquake precursor wave". Following this thought, we did ​​some research.

A.   Is the “Gravitational wave” detected by America’s LIGO possibly an “earthquake precursor wave”?

If the “gravitational wave” detected by America’s LIGO on September 14, 2015 at 09:50:45 UTC was a kind of “earthquake precursor”, it should occur before a large earthquake.  Again if the “gravitational wave” was one kind of “impending earthquake precursor”, then it should occur a few days, for example 2 or 3 days, before a large earthquake.

First, let’s search for large earthquakes over M7 around the world which occurred within half a year before October 26, 2015:

1.    A magnitude 7.8 earthquake struck Nepal 34 km (21 mi) east southeast of Lamjung on April 25 at a depth of 8.2 km (5.1 mi).

2.     A magnitude 7.5 earthquake struck Papua New Guinea 130 km (81 mi) south southwest of Kokopo on May 5 at a depth of 55.0 km (34.2 mi).

3.    A magnitude 7.3 earthquake struck Nepal 19 km (12 mi) southeast of Kodari on May 12 at a depth of 15.0 km (9.3 mi).

4.    A magnitude 7.8 earthquake struck offshore of Japan 189 km (117 mi) west northwest of Chichi-jima in the Ogasawara Islands on May 30 at a depth of 664.0 km (412.6 mi).

5.    A magnitude 8.3 earthquake struck Chile 48 km (30 mi) west of Illapel on September 16 at a depth of 22.4 km (13.9 mi).

6.     A magnitude 7.1 earthquake struck Vanuatu 34 km (21 mi) northeast of Port Olry on October 20 at a depth of 135.0 km (83.9 mi).

7.    A magnitude 7.5 earthquake struck Afghanistan 45 km (28 mi) east of Farkhar, Farkhar district, Takhar province on October 26 at a depth of 231.0 km (143.5 mi).

Why such a coincidence?  Is this a pure coincidence or does it mean we are in the right direction? A large earthquake of M8.3 occurred in Chile which is 7,000~8,000 km away from LIGO gravitational wave detectors and just within 2~3 days after the so-called gravitational wave arrived. The “gravitational wave” event just fell within the impending quake period of the large earthquake in Chile, while other large earthquakes in the world within the same half-year period were far away from the LIGO gravitational wave detectors and were not within the 2~3 days after that event.  This means that the unique Chile earthquake was the closest to the LIGO gravitational wave detectors and the “gravitational wave” was detected within 2~3 days before the earthquake in Chile, so it may be a good idea that the “gravitational wave” detected by America’s LIGO was only a kind of earthquake precursor wave!

According to our past experiments on earthquake prediction, it is not strange for detectors which are far away from the epicenter of a M8 earthquake to receive an earthquake precursor wave   (electromagnetic wave) from the emitter related with the M8 earthquake. On the other hand, it is very strange that instruments with high sensitivity cannot receive any impending earthquake precursor wave from M8 earthquakes!

In conclusion, it is another possible option that the signals detected by America’s LIGO gravitational wave detectors were earthquake precursor waves.

B. About the spectrum of signals:

    If someone detected a certain wave motion, then he (or she) would have described the detected signal spectrum and the response curve of the detection equipment for the fluctuation frequency, in order to determine whether the detected waveform has been distorted or not......        

    According to the article "human directly detected the gravitational waves for the first time” (Tencent Space Qiao Hui at 23:43 on February 11, 2016), the initial frequency of the detected gravitational wave signal was 35 Hz, then quickly it went up to 250 Hz, and finally became disorderly and then disappeared...... (the whole process lasted for only a quarter of a second. The signal detected by the detector in Livingston was 7 milliseconds earlier than the signal detected by the detector in Hanford.  The time difference indicates that gravitational waves were coming from the southern sky.) 

      If we say that the detected signal is a kind of earthquake precursor wave, then let's take a look at the general earthquake precursor wave to see if it corresponds with the spectrum of the signal detected by the LIGO detector or not.

    For earthquakes over M6.5 to M7, if using the frequency counter to measure the wave frequency of earthquakes, their spectrum should be between 40Hz and 1575Hz. We can treat the earthquake precursor as an analog of initial motion of large earthquake (no quake after being triggered), its low-end frequency of the initial motion should be the same as the low-end frequency of the earthquake, but it should be less than the high-end frequency 1575Hz of the earthquake, to be estimated as several hundred Hz. Thus the bands of earthquake precursor are in accordance with the bands of so-called "gravitational waves signal”.

Secondly, assuming that the electromagnetic radiation precursor is caused by certain kind of piezoelectric effect, then the bands of electromagnetic radiation precursors should be consistent with bands of stress precursor. Therefore, it cannot be excluded that the signal detected by the LIGO detector could possibly be a kind of earthquake precursor wave.

C.  About the duration of the signal:

   Why is the duration of the precursor only 0.4 seconds?  That is, why only 0.4 seconds if their signals are a kind of earthquake precursor?

   In the past years, the author mostly studied impending earthquake precursors, namely, precursors occurring a few days before large earthquakes.

   As we all know, the crustal stress is modulated by solid tide, so the earthquake precursor occurs only when the crustal stress reaches or exceeds the precursor threshold. In other words, the impending earthquake precursor as the sudden change form occurs in the peaks or valleys of solid tide, so generally speaking, they are short-lived. (The earthquake would occur when crustal stress reaches or exceeds the threshold of the earthquake.) Due to their gravitational wave detectors is well shielded, only the strongest electromagnetic radiation emitted in the short duration (for example 0.4 seconds) in which there are largest peak or valley tidal values is able to penetrate the shield and be detected. The electromagnetic radiation outside this duration (0.4 seconds) is shielded by their instrument.

D. About the arrival time of the signal:            

          A typically impending earthquake precursor occurs within 2 to 3 days before the earthquake. Most of the time this will be the case! We have said in the previous section that the so-called "gravitational waves" detected by LIGO did occur within 2-3 days before the M8.3 earthquake in Chile!  

E. About the angle of incidence and the signal strength:

   The issue of the incident angle of "gravitational waves" did not appear to be mentioned in detail in the paper from LIGO. How about the angle between the incident angle of "gravitational waves" and the plane of the detecting equipment? It is directly related to the signal strength. Because the two perpendicular arms of their each interferometer is in free form, two signals may offset at a certain angle of incidence. Also, because the interferometer arms of the two interferometers are not parallel to each other (refer to paper screenshot), the signal strength detected by the two interferometers may have differences, or large or small......

Let's look at a passage of LIGO paper in English.  It says, “Only the LIGO detectors were observing at the time of GW150914. The Virgo detector was being upgraded, and GEO 600, though not sufficiently sensitive to detect this event, was operating but not in observational mode”.   “With only two detectors the source position is primarily determined by the relative arrival time and ……”

    That is, the angle of incidence is anti-deducted, not by taking measurements.

 Also another article which introduced LIGO’s detection says: “The positioning accuracy of gravitational wave sources can be improved only after the Australian interferometer is networked.” In other words, the positioning of the source encountered difficulties before the Australian interferometer is networked. It shows indirectly that our suspicion is reasonable.

F.  Discussion of the time difference of signals detected by the two detectors:

1. The time difference between signals detected by the two LIGO detectors was about 7 milliseconds. Some people think that this can only be an error of signals made by a human. We believe that if the signal was emitted from the epicenter of the earthquake in Chile, then this 7ms may be human error and in fact the time difference should be 10 milliseconds!

  2. The second possibility is that the epicenter was not necessarily the original source of the specific precursor (of course the precursor also can be emitted from the epicenter); the area of ruptured plate of a M8 earthquake may have an extension up to thousands of kilometers, and it is entirely possible that the stress point of a precursor is far away from L1, H1 and located in a different direction! It is expected that this stress point is likely to be located in a fault of the eastern Pacific. We wish to find this stress point which meets the condition with 7 ms time difference between the two detectors.  To test and verify this argument, three detectors are necessary at least! This corresponds with the content discussed in Section E!

G. GRB (gamma-ray bursts) cannot explain that the signal detected by LIGO is a gravitational wave (I hope to discuss this with Professor Cai Yifu, University of Science and Technology of China.)

    In the important news of the first edition, February 18, 2016 China Science News, there is a report about a response to the question of gravitational wave detection by Professor Cai Yifu, Department of Physics, University of Science and Technology of China.

At first Mr. Cai affirmed the issues involved in the gravitational wave detection, but he defended the result of the LIGO detection: While the merging of black holes, was emitted not only gravitational waves but also electromagnetic signals, that is, gamma-ray bursts, the relevant signals were captured and examined by other telescopes independently. This shows that the probability of a non-gravitational wave is very low.

The author believes that his explanation did not help LIGO, but gave further help to the research fellow  Dajiong Lu, providing further evidence for Lu’s dissertation --- The signals detected by LIGO may be a kind of earthquake precursor!

    It is almost well-known in the field of earthquake prediction that magnetic storms from the cosmos are frequently observed before the occurrence of large earthquakes. Some seismologists also use these magnetic storms to predict earthquakes! First let us quote a text passage in Prof. Zhendong Yu’s paper, "the root and causes of the M8 Wenchuan earthquake".

    The environmental enhancement of cosmic rays which is symbolized by large GLE events of cosmic rays on January 20, 2005 was a major source of the Wen-chuan M8.0 earthquake. It should be noted that the enhancement of cosmic rays in large GLE events is only a symbol. We don’t say that the neutron part of enhanced cosmic rays alone can cause a major earthquake. Large earthquakes are trigged by all high-energy radiation, including known and unknown varieties of high-energy radiation, caused by corresponding solar flares of cosmic rays in the outbreak. We believe that there was an important astronomical event which was going to affect the Wen-chuan earthquake. It just is extremely important γ-ray bursts GRB080319B observed on March 19, 2008. The γ-ray bursts were 75 hundred-million light-years away from the Earth. The most surprising feature is that its optical afterglow has reached apparent magnitude 5.3. γ-ray bursts are the most violent bursts known after the Big Bang. It is generally believed that most γ-ray bursts are produced when a massive star after burning all its nuclear fuel collapses to form black holes or neutron stars. The energy released may reach up to 1054 erg / sec. The outburst process produces a variety of known and unknown flux of energetic particles, in addition to γ-rays, X-rays, visible light and radio emissions. This high-energy radiation and material arising from the γ-ray burst arrives and affects the Earth absolutely. Based on research on the relationship between supernova explosions and large earthquakes, we already know that the brightest apparent magnitude of stellar explosions is an indicator reflecting the degree of magnitude of earthquakes. A supernova explosion of the brightest apparent magnitude of 3 can just cause an earthquake of M8. The brightest apparent magnitude of γ-ray burst GRB080319B reached 5.3; their difference is 2 only, but the outbreak scope of the γ-ray bursts is a hundred million times larger than a supernova explosion, so generating high-energy radiation and material which could cause large earthquakes much greater than that generated by supernova explosion. Therefore, there is reason to believe that γ ray burst GRB080319B could affect seismic activity. That is, the combined effect of solar flares of cosmic rays reflected by the large GLE event on January 20, 2005 and γ-ray burst GRB080319B is the trigger factor of the Wen-chuan earthquake.   

Thus the argument (the correlation signal, electromagnetic wave signal namely GRBs were independently captured by other telescopes and cross-checked by each other) which was said by Mr. Cai does not illustrate that a gravitational wave was detected by LIGO, and precisely it just provides other favorable evidence for the thesis of the author (the signal detected by LIGO may have been an earthquake precursor wave.) There is a close relation between earthquakes, magnetic storms, and gamma-ray bursts; and the relationship between electromagnetic wave signals (namely GRBs) and gravitational waves has never been confirmed before, because a gravitational wave has never been detected by mankind before.

   Of course, the result detected by LIGO detectors perhaps will play a role in the research on the causes of earthquakes or trigger mechanism.

    Conclusion: The concept of earthquake precursors may be used to explain the signal detected by the LIGO gravitational wave detectors, i.e. it is another possible option!

 CODA:

    This article attempts to reveal a secret: Why have scientists around the world not been able to achieve impending earthquake predictions so far.

    Forty years ago, Researcher Dajiong Lu predicted accurately and successfully some earthquakes, especially three elements of teleseisms. Since then until today, no scientist in the world can reach the level of earthquake prediction achieved by researcher Dajiong Lu 40 years ago!

     To investigate its cause:  It may be that seismologists around the world regard impending earthquake precursors as interference or noise to deal with. Coincidentally, recently astronomers around the world are likely to regard impending earthquake precursors as gravitational waves! Therefore, scientists all over the world consider that there are no trustworthy impending earthquake precursors before large earthquakes, so that they do nothing and are helpless in the field of impending earthquake prediction!

    The above-mentioned serves as a reference for worldwide scientists!

     At the same time, the subjective feeling of the author is that scientists around the world are avoiding research on earthquake prediction, preferring to study gravitational waves emitted 1.3 billion light-years far far away, preferring to study artificial intelligence “GO” (a game played with black and white stones on a board of 361 crosses) ......but dare not touch the impending earthquake prediction of large earthquakes!

Thanks: Japanese Dr. Dai Feng made very valuable comments, herein to express my gratitude!