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经济学家圈 Today
本文为美国前国务卿基辛格4月3日在《华尔街日报》刊登的评论
文章称新冠肺炎大流行将永远改变世界秩序，指出当前美国民意分化，必须有一个有效率、有远见的政府来克服当下在规模上和全球范围内“前所未有”的困难，因此维持公众的信任对于社会团结、社群关系和国际和平稳定是至关重要的。
The Coronavirus Pandemic Will Forever Alter the World Order新冠肺炎大流行将永远改变世界秩序
美国必须保护公民免受疾病之扰同时要着手开展新纪元规划的紧迫任务。
新冠肺炎大流行给人的超现实之感让我想起了我年轻时作为第84步兵师一员在坦克大决战中的感受。现在，就像1944年末一样，有一种早期的危险感，不是针对任何特定的人，而是一种随机的、毁灭性的打击。但那段时期和当下有一个重要的区别。当时，美国的忍耐力被一个终极的国家目标所不断强化。目前美国民意分化，必须有一个有效率、有远见的政府来克服当下在规模上和全球范围内前所未有的困难。维持公众的信任对于社会团结、社群关系和国际和平稳定是至关重要的。
国家的团结和繁荣建立在这样的信念上，即国家机构能够预见灾难、阻止其影响并恢复稳定。而当新冠肺炎大流行结束时，许多国家机构将被视为失败，这一判断是否客观公正无关紧要。事实是，世界在新冠肺炎疫情后将永远改变，现在争论已经过去的事，只会让必须做的事情更加困难。”
新冠肺炎疫情的流行规模是空前的，其传播是指数级的：美国的病例数每5天就翻一番。截至目前，没有治愈的方法。医疗供应也不足以应付不断增多的病例。重症监护病房已经到了不堪重负的边缘，或者说正在崩溃。检测量不足以确定感染的程度，更不用说逆转其蔓延。成功研制出疫苗可能需要12到18个月。
美国政府在避免眼前灾难方面做了扎实的工作。但最终的考验将是，联邦政府将如何阻止病毒传播然后某种方式使之大规模逆转，同时能够让美国公众保持对于自身治理的信心。危机的努力，无论多么巨大和必要，都不能排挤启动一个平行企业的紧迫任务，以便向冠状病毒后的秩序过渡。
各国领导人都在全国范围内处理这场危机，但病毒的社会溶解效应不识国界。虽然病毒对人类健康的攻击有望是暂时的，但它引发的政治和经济动荡可能会持续几代人。没有一个国家，甚至美国，能够通过纯粹的国家努力战胜病毒。解决当前的必要问题最终必须将全球合作的愿景和具体计划相结合，如果我们不能同时做这两件事，每个国家都将面临最坏的结果。
鉴于马歇尔计划和曼哈顿计划的发展经验，美国有义务在三个领域作出重大努力：第一，增强全球抵御传染病的能力。脊髓灰质炎疫苗和根除天花等医学科学的胜利，或是通过人工智能进行医学诊断的新兴统计技术奇迹，都使我们陷入危险的自满状态。我们需要开发新技术和新科技来防控病毒、研发疫苗使之适用于尽可能多的人群，城市、各州和地区必须通过储存、合作规划和科学前沿的探索，始终如一地做好准备，保护其人民免受流行病的影响。
第二，努力治愈世界经济的创伤。全球领导人从2008年金融危机中吸取了重要教训，当前的经济危机更为复杂：新冠疫情引发的经济收紧，无论从速度还是全球范围来看，都不同于历史上的任何已情况。而必要的公共卫生措施，如隔离、关闭学校和企业等，都在加剧经济重压。接下来的一系列计划还应设法改善即将到来的混乱对世界上最脆弱人口的影响。
第三，维护自由世界秩序的原则。现代政府的缘起是一座由强大统治者保护的城邦城市，有时专制，有时仁慈，但总是强大到足以保护人民免受外部敌人的攻击。启蒙思想家重新界定了这一概念，认为合法国家的目的是满足人民的基本需要：安全、秩序、经济福祉和正义。个人无法独自保护这些东西。这场流行病已经导致了一种不合时宜的现象，在一个繁荣依赖全球贸易和人口流动的时代，城邦国家的城墙正在悄然复兴。
世界民主国家需要捍卫和维持其启蒙价值观。全球从权力与合法性的平衡中退缩将导致社会契约在国内和国际上瓦解。然而，这一千禧年的合法性和权力问题不能与克服新冠肺炎的努力同时解决，在国内政治和国际外交中，各方都必须保持克制，必须确定优先事项。
我们从坦克决战时代进入一个日益繁荣和人类尊严日益提高的世界。我们生活在一个新的时代，各国领导人面临的历史性挑战在于，要应对危机的同时建设未来。而失败可能会让世界万劫不复。
The surreal atmosphere of the Covid-19 pandemic calls to mind how I felt as a young man in the 84th Infantry Division during the Battle of the Bulge. Now, as in late 1944, there is a sense of inchoate danger, aimed not at any particular person, but striking randomly and with devastation. But there is an important difference between that faraway time and ours. American endurance then was fortified by an ultimate national purpose. Now, in a divided country, efficient and farsighted government is necessary to overcome obstacles unprecedented in magnitude and global scope. Sustaining the public trust is crucial to social solidarity, to the relation of societies with each other, and to international peace and stability.
Nations cohere and flourish on the belief that their institutions can foresee calamity, arrest its impact and restore stability. When the Covid-19 pandemic is over, many countries’ institutions will be perceived as having failed. Whether this judgment is objectively fair is irrelevant. The reality is the world will never be the same after the coronavirus. To argue now about the past only makes it harder to do what has to be done.
The coronavirus has struck with unprecedented scale and ferocity. Its spread is exponential: U.S. cases are doubling every fifth day. At this writing, there is no cure. Medical supplies are insufficient to cope with the widening waves of cases. Intensive-care units are on the verge, and beyond, of being overwhelmed. Testing is inadequate to the task of identifying the extent of infection, much less reversing its spread. A successful vaccine could be 12 to 18 months away.
The U.S. administration has done a solid job in avoiding immediate catastrophe. The ultimate test will be whether the virus’s spread can be arrested and then reversed in a manner and at a scale that maintains public confidence in Americans’ ability to govern themselves. The crisis effort, however vast and necessary, must not crowd out the urgent task of launching a parallel enterprise for the transition to the post-coronavirus order.
Leaders are dealing with the crisis on a largely national basis, but the virus’s society-dissolving effects do not recognize borders. While the assault on human health will—hopefully—be temporary, the political and economic upheaval it has unleashed could last for generations. No country, not even the U.S., can in a purely national effort overcome the virus. Addressing the necessities of the moment must ultimately be coupled with a global collaborative vision and program. If we cannot do both in tandem, we will face the worst of each.
Drawing lessons from the development of the Marshall Plan and the Manhattan Project, the U.S. is obliged to undertake a major effort in three domains. First, shore up global resilience to infectious disease. Triumphs of medical science like the polio vaccine and the eradication of smallpox, or the emerging statistical-technical marvel of medical diagnosis through artificial intelligence, have lulled us into a dangerous complacency. We need to develop new techniques and technologies for infection control and commensurate vaccines across large populations. Cities, states and regions must consistently prepare to protect their people from pandemics through stockpiling, cooperative planning and exploration at the frontiers of science.
Second, strive to heal the wounds to the world economy. Global leaders have learned important lessons from the 2008 financial crisis. The current economic crisis is more complex: The contraction unleashed by the coronavirus is, in its speed and global scale, unlike anything ever known in history. And necessary public-health measures such as social distancing and closing schools and businesses are contributing to the economic pain. Programs should also seek to ameliorate the effects of impending chaos on the world’s most vulnerable populations.
Third, safeguard the principles of the liberal world order. The founding legend of modern government is a walled city protected by powerful rulers, sometimes despotic, other times benevolent, yet always strong enough to protect the people from an external enemy. Enlightenment thinkers reframed this concept, arguing that the purpose of the legitimate state is to provide for the fundamental needs of the people: security, order, economic well-being, and justice. Individuals cannot secure these things on their own. The pandemic has prompted an anachronism, a revival of the walled city in an age when prosperity depends on global trade and movement of people.
The world’s democracies need to defend and sustain their Enlightenment values. A global retreat from balancing power with legitimacy will cause the social contract to disintegrate both domestically and internationally. Yet this millennial issue of legitimacy and power cannot be settled simultaneously with the effort to overcome the Covid-19 plague. Restraint is necessary on all sides—in both domestic politics and international diplomacy. Priorities must be established.
We went on from the Battle of the Bulge into a world of growing prosperity and enhanced human dignity. Now, we live an epochal period. The historic challenge for leaders is to manage the crisis while building the future. Failure could set the world on fire.