社会及经济的智能监管 Intelligent supervision of society and economy

Oct 26, 2015 at 11:16 PM

我们现在监管污染的手段就是在河流大气土壤等地方放监测仪器，如果某些数据超标的时候我们就知道会有污染. 我觉得现在的经济指标也是到这个程度，监控像一个matrix. 如果某些指标出问题呢，道琼工业指数纳斯达克就会跟着上下波动. 如果我们把经济也象工程一样来做，做得更信息化，细节化. 当污染出现的时候我们完全可以通过其他途径找出污染源，对污染源增加控制和监管，在第一时间杜绝污染的发生.  整个社会的经济系统是一个更复杂的系统. 我们是不是应该分析整个人类社会, 对某个产品的需求总量是多少, 在各个地区的分散量是多少. 然后根据产业链竖向地分析每一个企业的需求量以及产出量，然后再横向的综合某一个环节的总需求量及产出量.

将实际的需求和生产的供应相比较, 如果是满足需求的, 相差不大的, 那这个系统运作是正常的. 如果地区有差别, 那要从全球来平衡, 如果全球范围内哪个环节出了错, 太少或太多, 那就会引发经济灾难.

The means of monitoring pollution now is to place monitoring instruments in the atmosphere of the river, etc. If some data exceeds the standard, we will know that there will be pollution. I think the current economic indicators are also to this extent, monitoring is like a matrix. If there is a problem with the indicator, the Dow Jones Industrial Index NASDAQ will fluctuate up and down. If we manage economy in engineering way, we will have more information and details. When pollution occurs, we can through other channels to identify pollution sources, increase control and supervision, and eliminate pollution in the first place. The economic system of the whole society is a more complex system. Should we analyze the entire human society, the total demand for a certain product, the amount of dispersion in each region. Then, according to the industry chain, the demands and outputs of each enterprise is analyzed vertically, and then the total demands and outputs of a certain link is integrated horizontally. Comparing the actual demand with the supply of production, if it is satisfied with the demand, the system is operating normally. If there is a difference in the region, it should be balanced from the global scale. If any part of the world is out wrong, too little or too much, it will lead to economic disaster.

我们在设计系统结构的时候有中央控制还有分散控制，一般来说中央控制比较好, 因为可以掌控全局. 但现在全球的情景是各个国家有自己的控制，某个强权会在控制的时候把灾难移至外国，更加深别国的灾情. 怎么样一个控制结构才是一个最好的结构,来平衡防止下一次的经济危机？而且经济不是只是一个行业，行业之间是相互关联的，我们不能只是被动地看一些大的指数，应该有一个立体的操控矩阵, 精确到每一个点，而且要实时监控. 我不知道现在有人是不是做研究已经到了这样的程度，每一个点的临界指数已经大体给出？我不知道是不是有人已经作出研究，某些指数间的关系是不是适合一定的公式？（比如说婴儿的出生率，与婴幼物品供应，和附近托儿所幼儿园的数量和容量配比关系，等等）我们在系统操作的时候，还要看系统过去的历史，分析系统的走向，看社会的变化及科技的进步，或是可能的灾害，（比如战争避难）来预置一定的操作空间， 或预备一个备存系统.

When designing system structure, we have central control and distributed control. Generally speaking, central control is better because it can control the whole situation. But now the global situation is that each country has its own control, and a certain power will move disaster to a foreign country and deepened the disaster situation of that country. How is the best structure to balance the future economic crisis? And the economy is not just an industry. The industries are interrelated. We can't just look at some big indexes passively. There should be a multidimensional control of the matrix, accurate to every point, and real-time monitoring. I don't know anyone now. Is it that the research has reached such a level that the critical index of each point has been given roughly? I don't know if someone has already done research. Is the relationship between certain indexes suitable for a certain formula? (For example, the birth rate of babies, the supply of baby goods, and the number and capacity ratio of kindergartens in nearby nurseries, etc.) When we operate the system, we must look at the past history of the system, analyze the moving direction of the system, changes and advances in technology, or possible disasters (such as war refuge) to pre-set a certain operating space, or prepare a backup system.

我不知道世界顶尖的经济学家是不是有如此完美的系统操作的概念和设计，以及系统内部关系的具体理论. 如果没有，我想这就是大数据所要做的下一步骤. 如果整个社会是一个人体，互联网为主的通信就是人的神经系统，经济就是人的循环系统，机械基建是人的肌肉和骨骼系统. 如果整个社会的监控matrix 可以建立起来，经济引发的经济危机就不可能发生. 基于对整个社会各行业的了解，就业的配备也会更合理，人才的培养就会比较定向比较有目的，而孩子成长生涯规划也能更大地发挥人的优势. 人可以用更多的时间和精力去创造去学习去发挥才能，天生我材必有用. 这样也可以有效地防止某些恶性投机行为，使财富可以比较平均地分配. 使资本可以用在最需要的地方，用工程的话说是系统优化. 数学公式总是最完美的，人类社会不见得. 我不太懂经济，只是擅长设计系统.

I don't know if the world's top economists have such a perfect system operation concept and design, and the specific theory of the internal relationship of the system. If not, I think this is the next step that big data has to do. If the whole society is A human body, Internet-based communication is the human nervous system, the economy is the human circulatory system, and the mechanical infrastructure is the human muscle and skeletal system. If the monitoring matrix of the whole society can be established, the economic crisis caused by the economy will not happen. Based on the understanding of the entire society and the industry, the employment will be more reasonable, the cultivation of talents will be more targeted, and the child's growth career planning can also give greater play to people's advantages. People can use more time and Efforts to create and learn to play talents, natural materials must be useful. This can also effectively prevent some vicious speculation, so that wealth can be distributed evenly. Capital can be used where it is most needed, in engineering terms System Optimization. Mathematical formulas are always perfect, human society is not. I don't know much about the economy, but I am good at designing systems.