如何进行经济结构分析 How to do economic structure analysis

Oct 26, 2015 at 11:25 PM

我不是专家, 得恶补一下政治经济知识啊，是吧？别笑我. Jackie数学不好，可讲话逻辑很厉害，请别在意. 有一次在国际卫视演出，主持人是来美学法律的北美崔哥，给她下套，问她学才艺是不是妈妈逼的，是不是牺牲很多玩的时间. 结果她说，每个人都有天赋，因为我喜欢艺术就把时间花在这上边多些，别人喜欢运动，看电视，玩，就做别的. 下一次同台演出，北美崔哥一句话都不问她了.

I am not an expert, I have to make up for political and economic knowledge, right? Don't laugh at me. Jackie's math is not good, but her speech logic is very powerful. Please don't mind. Once in Chinese international TV show, the host is North American Brother Sway who came to US studying law. Give her a trap asking her if she is forced byMom to learn music sacrificing a lot of time to play . As a result, she said that everyone has talent, because she likes art and spend more time on it. Others like sports, watching TV, playing, and spend time on doing something else. Next time On the same stage, Brother Sway of North America did not ask her a word.

经济中有第一产业第二产业第三产业，我上次写的经济的层次也是这个意思，当然层次比产业要更具体些. 发达国家和发展中国家的区别在于，在GDP中，发达国家的高层产业贡献比例比较大，因为第三产业能附加的价值比较高. 在发达国家中，下边产业的人口数跟总人口的比例，比发展中国家小很多.也就是因为他们应用了高科技，每个人能贡献多，效率更大. 如果你把每一层，或相似的产业，按地区，在世界上的联合起来，再以地区产值为高度，那你就有了这个产业在世界的分布.可以用simulink,来做. 在各个地区的产值中，哪一部分是本国的，哪一部分是外资公司的，本国的比例是多少？这个行业哪一个外国公司在全球的利润最大？为什么？

There are primary sector, the secondary sector, the tertiary sector in the economy. The level of the economy I wrote last time means the samething. Of course, the level is more specific than the sectors. The difference between developed and developing countries is that in GDP.In developed countries their contribution rate of the high-level industries is relatively large, because the value added by the tertiary industry is relatively high. In developed countries, the ratio of the population of the lower industries to the total population is much smaller than that of the developing countries. It is because they apply high technology. Everyone can contribute more and the region will be more efficient. If you put each layer, or a similar industry , by region in the world regional production value as height, then you have this industry distribution in the world. It can be done with simulink to show the 3D layout. Which part of the output value of each region is domestic and which part is a foreign company? What is the proportion of the country? What is the proportion of this country? Which foreign company in this industry has the most profit in the world? Why?

当你有了这一个大的分布图你就可以做macro和micro的分析. 有一些产业你一定要用macro眼光来看,比如能源，设想如果俄国不供欧洲天然气，如果沙特不供给中国石油, 会是啥结果？ 电力核动力水力发电等等，可不可以以经济区域的方式，而不是以国家的方式来划分？中美洲气候土壤适宜产各种各样的水果，南美更是广阔的牧场生产生产世界最好的牛肉. 北美更是一片平原适合机械化大规模生产庄稼. 中国的可耕地有限，有山的地方没法用机械化，这样生产力低效率不高. 田地还有休耕问题. 如果国家疆界不是一个障碍，中国人又比较聪明可以做比较高级的产业. 你懂我意思的, 这是一个宏观的可行性. 如果科技进步了有些本来是微观的也可以变成宏观. 比如动画可以在地球不同的studio画，甚至不同人在不同地方录音，写音乐，最后汇总就行. 如果以micro来看，每个地区在产业之中，产业和产业之间，自己就可以加很多属于当地的层次. 中国在这方面非常有创造性，提供了大量的就业机会，创造了很大的产值.

When you have this large distribution map, you can do macro and micro analysis. There are some industries that you must look at with macro vision, such as energy. If Russia does not supply European gas, if Saudi Arabia does not supply Chinese oil, what will it be? Oil power, nuclear power, hydro-power, etc., can it be divided by economic region rather than by country? Central America's climatic soil is suitable for producing a wide variety of fruits, and South America is a vast pasture producing the world's best beef. North America is a plain for mechanized large-scale production of crops. China's arable land is limited, and there are mountains where there is no way to mechanize, so productivity is not efficient. The field has a fallow problem. If the national border is not an obstacle, Chinese are smarter and can be in more advanced industry. You know what I mean, this is a macro feasibility. With advanced technology, some micros can also become macro. For example, animation can be painted in different studios on the earth, even different people recording , writing music in different places, and finally integrated. If you look at micro, each region when inside the industries, among them, between them, they can add a lot of local level. China is very creative in this respect, providing a large number of employment opportunities and creating a large output values.

基于上面已经形成的以产业为高低的层次分布，你可以把国家的边界线加上去，那就一目了然，这个国家他的产业层次上下分布是如何，产业层水平分布如何. 然后再把你的环境的约束，污染的情况，市场的距离，种种条件加上去看看这个地区的产业分布是不是合理？有什么可以调整的？ 每家跨国公司都有他们的投资分布，以后的投资策略.把他们所有的一层层叠加起来，那就是以后可能的，现有的资本拥有者对将来的经济的结构的共识？ 看看与你的分析吻和吗？

Based on the above-mentioned industry-level distribution, you can add the country's boundary line. It is clear at a glance how the country's industrial vertical level is distributed, how the industrial horizontal level is distributed. Then take your environment constraints, pollution situations, markets distribution, plus various conditions to see if the industry distribution in this area is reasonable? What can be adjusted? Every multinational company has their investment distributions, and the future investment strategy. Stacking all of them layer by layer, is that, possible, the existing capital owners' consensus on the future economic structure? See if it matches with your analysis?

看见你们新的口号是拉动内需. 也就是在你的边界线内，最低层的产业层次，看能不能用高效率的技术？能不能多加新的创意产业层次？能不能增加你的自己的产值的比例，降低外来投资产值的比例？给产业添加附加值？增加高层产业的比例？ 再看看别国的别的地区的产业层次，什么东西比较缺呀，你的技术，能不能把那边市场拿下来？或者合资，或者交换. 希望你的决定是有 solid的数据,和严密的逻辑, 有说服力的经济学理论来支撑你的. 有钱了，自然要买好东西，有钱人多了，自然市场需求就大了. 向外扩张和提升内部其实是不矛盾的，一张纸的两个面. Sweetie, 如果你的控制程序现在是以手机为单位的话，那你的经济控制要以一个经济体为单位，可以是人也可以是企业. 包括地点，产业性质，输入，输出，市场， 等等， 可以是你既有控制程序的一个 sub. 等你有了这些object, 以及运作的数据，你就可以加那些经济学的所有的公式了.

Seeing your new slogan is to stimulate domestic demand. That is, within your borderline, the lowest level of industry, can you see if you can use high-efficiency technology? Can you add a new level of creative industry? Can you increase the proportion of your own output and reduce the proportion of foreign investment in output? Add value to the industry? Increase the proportion of high-tech industries? Look at the industrial level of other regions in other countries, what is missing, useyour technology, can you take the market there? Or make joint venture, or exchange. I hope that your decision has solid data, and rigorous logic, or persuasive economic theory to support you. Be rich, naturally peoplewant to buy good things. Get richer people naturally have larger market demands. It is not contradictory to expand outwards and upgrade the interior the same time. It is like two sides of a coin. Sweetie, if your control program can now be based on a mobile phone unit, then your economic control must be based on an economic unit. It can be either a person or a business, including location, industry nature, input, output, market, etc., can be a subroutine of your existing control program. Waittill you create these objects, as well as the operational data, then you can add all the economics formulas.