这里是网友评论第2页，点击查看原文
发表评论 评论 (28 个评论)
- 1 回复 SecondThought
- Nanshanke: Thank you very much. You definitely wake me up on this.
Also remember to bet on the winning industries on the collective basis but not on the individual companies. In the fast running industries, some less competitive companies will get exhausted along the way. I remember that, back in 1995, Iomega was a very hot stock but became cooled off suddenly. Investors could not see that the business of disk storage was going to be slow down. However the market can foresee the future because the market action is a collective votes of many bright minds although each of these individual bright minds also makes many mistakes.
- 1 回复 Nanshanke
- Your advice is crucial. Yes, for an outsider, it is hard to pick up a right stock. Instead, mutual fund could be a reasonable choice. Really appreciate your comments.
SecondThought: Nanshanke: Thank you very much. You definitely wake me up on this.
Also remember to bet on the winning industries on the collective basis but not on
- 1 回复 SecondThought
- Your advice is crucial. Yes, for an outsider, it is hard to pick up a right stock. Instead, mutual fund could be a reasonable choice.
Using the "right" index fund instead of the actively managed mutual funds. I did some analysis based on the data at the end of April 2016. There were 8,000 mutual funds approximately in U.S. By taking out MMFs, bond funds and other fixed income funds, there were 4,500 equity funds left. By assuming that there were 1,000 sector equity funds (actually may be a smaller number), there were 3,500 diversified stock funds. By category, large-cap stock funds had the best 3-year, 5-year and 10-year performance among all of the categories of the diversified equity funds. If rated by the individual funds, Shelton NASDAQ 100 Index fund (NASDX) had one of the very best returns over those three periods. The probability of the 3,500 funds to outperform the NASDX was 0.1% over 3-year, 0.1% over 5-year and 0.2% over 10-year period of time. Among those very few funds that outperformed the NASDX, the annual outperformance was mostly within 0.5% a year. That 10-year period covered the most dramatic market crash since 1929 but the actively managed fund could still not gain any edge over the NASDAQ 100 Index. NASDX had a 11% annualized gain over that 10-year period. USAA has another NASDAQ 100 Index, the USNQX. The only difference between the two index funds is that USNQX has a higher MER at 0.55%. Fidelity has a NASDAQ Composite index fund and its return is slightly lower. The NASDAQ was very unpopular (and may still not be popular). The total assets of the three NASDAQ index funds combined was only $2 billion. As a comparison, Vanguard U.S. Total Stock Market fund had $460 billion in the assets. The S&P is about 80% of the U.S. stock market, NASDAQ Composite 40% of the total market; NASDAQ 100 is half of the NASDAQ Composite and the Top 10 components in the 100 Index is half of the NASDAQ 100 Index. You only need the most established companies in a few new-economy industries and forget most of those older industries that do not grow the earnings by much.
- 1 回复 Nanshanke
- Thank you, very valuable information. Its top 10 holdings are the best IT corps.
SecondThought: Your advice is crucial. Yes, for an outsider, it is hard to pick up a right stock. Instead, mutual fund could be a reasonable choice.
Using the "
- 1 回复 SecondThought
- Thank you, very valuable information. Its top 10 holdings are the best IT corps.
Over short period of time, stock prices are about everything, which may be why people consider stock investing a very complicated practice. However, as Peter Lynch said, stock price is 100% correlated to its earning power. On the collective basis, the NDX (NASDAQ 100 Index) still grows its sales at 11%-12% annually. The earning growth of the index is usually a bit better than the growth of the sales because of the productivity improvement. As a comparison, The Dow has almost a flat growth of sales. The S&P has a 5% annual growth of sales at most but a significant portion of its sales growth is actually from those new-economy companies. However, the money does not come for free. Money is earned either by labor hours or by taking mental stress or by both. investing in stock market is about taking mental stress in exchange for future gains. We all have different pain threshold so that the ones who can load the boat and sit tight during the volatile period of time will be the best investors. Over very long term, the S&P earnings grow at 6%-7% above inflation. The NDX was not a mature index until recent years. At the current fundamentals, the NDX may grow its earnings at 8%-10% above inflation over next a number of years.
- 1 回复 Nanshanke
- I will play nasdaq 100 little by little. Thanks.
SecondThought: Thank you, very valuable information. Its top 10 holdings are the best IT corps.
Over short period of time, stock prices are about everything, which
- 1 回复 SecondThought
- You have been posting some good writings. I show my appreciation. I will continue to wait for your future 大作. I have neither writing talent nor the patience so that my time has been spent in gym. Good luck with you.
12