美国人看美国（二）：惩罚中国货币无助于美国

惩罚中国货币无助于美国

文/罗杰  翻译/丹奇

10/14/2011

过去一周，美国参议院以压倒性多数通过一项对那些为了其经济目的而操纵汇率的国家进行惩罚的议案。虽然立法者们没有明确点中国的名，但是此次投票矛头直指中国。

关键是这个惩罚中国的观点对美国没有帮助，实际上对美国有害也对中国有害。虽然这个议案的通过在政治上是权宜之计，极受欢迎，让每个人都感觉良好。但是这个时候这个行动的结果却是不好估量的或确定的。因为如果或当人民币对美元升值更多的话，很明显有些事情将会发生。

首先，政客们和普罗大众忽视的是中国在世界上购买的商品和服务就会更便宜。比如说， 我们以国际石油市场为例。国际石油市场是以美元标价的。现在，假如我们让人民币对美元的价值翻一倍—将会发生什么情况呢？ 首先，石油价格对中国人已经降了50%（因为现在他们可以比以前购买两倍多的美元），中国人可以用同样的价格购买两倍多的石油了。这就造成美国将要以更高的代价竞争全球石油供应。 由于石油本身是美国经济的发动机。美国的制造业，每个人开的车，或购买任何产品—石油是等式的一部分。因此，所有的商品价格就会上升，对所有美国人来说通货膨胀率将会显著增加。

那么，随着价格比过去20年要增加更多，利率也会显著增加。因为利率是由通货膨胀率和真正的资本回报率决定的。更高的利率现在就会减缓我们的建房市场，并将减慢这个国家基本上每个行业因为住房，特别是住房是我们经济如此巨大的一部分。

美元价值的下跌相对于人民币将使中国产品更加昂贵，而且并不一定能在美国创造就业机会或把工作机会还给美国。因为中国相对于美国产品还是可以更便宜的—但是还是会比以前更贵。

因此，总而言之，美国参议院采取的方式将无助于美国，我个人认为只会伤害美国，以更贵的价格伤害美国人民，并且非常可能制造贸易战，那样的话，我们全是输家！

（附原文）

Punishing China’s Currency Won’t Help USA

By Tadie  (October 14th, 2011)

This past week the United States Senate voted overwhelmingly to punish countries who in their view manipulate their currencies for their own economic purposes. While the legislation does not specifically name China the intent and spirit of the vote was all directed at China.

The problem with this view – punishing China – will not help the USA and may well indeed hurt the USA as much as it does China. While it may be politically expedient and extremely popular to pass this legislation and of course makes everyone feel good the results of this action are hard to gauge or determine at this point there are some obvious things that will happen if and when the Yuan ( RMB ) appreciates more versus the dollar.

The first thing that politicians and the general public overlook is that all the goods and services that China buys on the world market will now be cheaper. As an example let’s look at the global oil market. The oil market is priced in US dollars. Now, hypothetically let’s assume the RMB doubles in value versus the dollar – what happens? Well, for one the price of oil has gone in price for the Chinese by 50% ( since now they can buy twice as many dollars as they did before ) and the Chinese can now buy twice as much oil for the same price. It creates a situation where the USA could and probably would have to compete for global oil supplies at a much higher price. Since oil itself is the driver of the US economy and its manufacturing industry as well as everyone who drives a car or buys virtually any product – oil is part of the equation. So, prices of all goods will rise and inflation will increase significantly for all Americans.

Now, with prices increasing  more than they have in the past 20 years interest rates would increase significantly as well since interest rates are determined by inflation and some real return on capital Higher interest rates will now slow down our home building market which will slow down virtually every industry in this country since housing, particulary new housing, is such a huge part of our economy.

Also, the Chinese, with their new found purchasing power for cheaper dollars could buy more US A properties or companies – like oil companies – since now they would be only half the price they were before.

A declining value of the US dollar versus the RMB would also just make Chinese products more expensive and wouldn’t necessarily create jobs in the USA or bring jobs back to the USA since China may still be less expensive versus  a US product – but still more expensive than before.

So, in summary, the approach the US Senate is taking will not help the USA and in my opinion will only hurt the USA, injure US citizens with higher prices and very likely only create a trade war where we all lose.