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美国人看美国（5） 为何奥巴马2012年会赢
-------共和党是如何自毁长城的
文/他爹 翻译/丹奇
共和党已经四分五裂了，就像加沙地带的战争区。随着共和党候选人们在党内提名进行的辩论会已经越来越近的党内预选，很明显的，“最右派最保守”的那个会赢。茶党已经给他们的辩论注入了新的保守主义观点，以至于每个候选人都在力争成为那个观点最右派的人。
前面几场辩论下来，观众叫好的有以下几点：
对大多数囚犯执行死刑（瑞克佩里—德州州长）
让那些没有保险的病人去死 （荣坡—德州国会议员）
对那个目前在伊拉克服役的同性恋军官起哄
为明显把税赋重担向贫困或中产阶级倾斜的计划叫好
消除最低工资和取消工会的计划
重新划分国会选区，明明那个区的人口分布不符合规则，但要确保共和党多数人的地方
独特的新法律使流产变得非法（密西西比的新法即将投票表决）
那么，对那些强硬派而言，这些都是很精彩的事情，基本反映了一部分他们那个党派是谁的属性。问题是这些观点是如此的极右以至于在总统选举中是不可选的。
选举通常是由“独立”选民决定的---一个观点倾向于中间派的群体。除了一个人外，共和党基本上没有哪个候选人能够打败奥巴马。这个人就是洪博培，犹他州前任州长，前任美国驻华大使。但是，他对共和党阵营没有吸引力。他太温和了。他相信科学，不让上帝统治他的政治，而是非常开明。
独立选民确保我们不选一个极左或极右的总统。目前的这帮共和党候选人使布什看起来像是一个温和的民主党了。共和党阵营发现很难相信米特罗姆尼因为他太自由主义且翻来覆去。他们现在也不喜欢瑞克佩里因为他看起来太愚蠢无知，他允许非法移民在德州大学享受州内学费。现在民调领先者是赫曼可恩。即使出现性丑闻和明显的知识匮乏，这个人在目前的共和党候选人里还是领先的。这个人说过，我们应该在墨西哥边境修建电围墙让那些试图翻越的人触电死。他还说我们应该在边境修筑水坝，放些鳄鱼在里面把那些试图过河的人吃掉。也是这个人不知道中国有核武器，不知道“回归权”问题指的是巴勒斯坦人，甚至拿乌兹别克斯坦地名开结巴玩笑。难道这就是我们自由世界需要的领袖吗？难道这就是共和党能提供的最好的人选？为何这个人在民调上能够领先？
这个答案要在过去30年人口统计的政治版图变迁里找到。自从里根成为总统起，共和党右翼有了很大的成长，并且变得越加好战，越加“白人化”,越加宗教化，越加积极使用军队作为政策的工具。当这些使得共和党在过去的30年里有18年占领了总统宝座，我相信共和党内部已经变得极端右派时，由独立选民掌控的摇摆票将作出正确的选择—奥巴马的另一个四年，即使他在国内的成就记录不良，经济任然低迷，失业率任然很高。
共和党在此次的选举中可谓成功地搬起石头砸了自己的脚。他们没有很强的领袖，他们拒绝对聪明的人（洪博培）感兴趣。共和党变得如此热衷于“文化”争斗，他们正在夺回白宫的政治战争中落败。
2010年共和党竞选的纲领是更多的工作机会，更多的刺激经济的计划。然而，他们在国会和全国范围内的立法却是有关军中同性恋，同性恋婚姻，英语作为本国语言，加深“我们信上帝”的口号，通过不延长债务上限几乎将美国推入不履行义务的境地。所有这些也许是很好的政治伎俩，但是却是糟糕透顶的国家政策，对拯救国家或提供就业机会绝对于事无补。
共和党一直在扮演强硬的政治角色，他们阵营的选民被激发了。在换届选举中，他们得不到独立选民的选票。奥巴马将赢得另一个任期继续当美国总统。事实上，民主党可能赢回国会众议院并成为参议院多数，因为右派的夸张和说辞在全国性辩论上没有加分，反而进一步在财富阶级，种族，企业主和工人问题上，分裂了国家，
发动“阶级斗争”战略的唯一一方是共和党 – 这个国家不喜欢它 - 它会在2012年11月即将举行的选举付出昂贵的代价。
（英文原文）
WHY OBAMA WILL WIN IN 2012
And how the Republicans destroyed themselves
By Tadie (November 6th, 2011)
The Republican party has become so fractured it resembles a war zone in Gaza. As the GOP candidates for their party’s nomination for president debate each other and near the beginning of the primaries it has become more evident that only the “most far right conservative” can win. The Tea Party has injected their neo conservative view so much into the debate that each candidate must outdo the others to be farther right in their views.
During the previous debates the crowds have cheered the following:
- Executing the most prisoners ( Rick Perry – Governor of Texas )
- Letting uninsured sick people die ( Ron Paul – Congressman Texas )
- Booing an Army Officer who is currently serving in Iraq because he is gay
- Cheering tax plans that obviously tilt the tax burden onto the poor and middle class
- Plans to eliminate the minimum wage and bust unions
- Redraw Congressional districts that do not match the demographics of the area but rather to insure GOP majority
- Unique new laws to make abortion illegal ( Mississippi new law coming up for vote )
Now, to their hard core base these are all wonderful things and generally speaking part of their platform of whom they are as a party. The problem with this is that the views have gone so far right that it makes them unelectable in any Presidential election!
Elections are always decided by the “Independent” voters – a group that tends to be very “centrist” in their views. It would be virtually impossible for any of the GOP candidates to beat President Obama – except for one. That one person is Jon Huntsman, former Governor of Utah and Ambassador to China. But, he doesn’t appeal to the base. He’s too moderate. He believes in science, doesn’t let God rule his politics and is very cultured.
The “independent” voters keep us, as a nation, from electing Presidents that get to far to the right or the left. The current crop of GOP candidates make George Bush appear as a moderate Democrat. The GOP base finds it difficult to believe in Mitt Romney because he’s too liberal and a flip flopper. They don’t like Rick Perry right now because he appears, well, stupid and uninformed and he allowed illegals to have in state tuition at Texas universities. The leader however in the polls right now is Herman Cain. Even after a sex scandal and his obvious lack of knowledge this man leads in the polls of the current Presidential candidates for the Republicans. This man is one who said we should build a fence along the border with Mexico that is electric so we could kill those who tried to climb it. He also said we should build a water way along the border and put alligators in it to eat those who tried to cross it. This is a man who didn’t know that China has nuclear weapons, didn’t know what the “right of return “ issue was for the Palestinians, makes a joke out of “Ubeki beki beki stan stan” ( Uzbekistan ). Is this the kind of man we want to be the leader of the free world? Is this the best the GOP has to offer? Why is this man leading in the polls?
The answer to that can be found in how the demographics of the political landscape have changed the past 30 years. Since Reagan was President there has been a growth in the right wing of the GOP that has become more and more militant, more white, more religious and more active in the use of the military as a policy tool.
While this has allowed the GOP to control the Presidency for 18 out of the past 30 years I believe that the shift in the GOP has gone so far right that the pendulum controlled by the Independent voters will make the correct choice – another 4 years for Obama, even though he has a poor domestic record of achievement and the economy is still very sluggish and unemployment remains high.
The Republicans have done a great job at shooting themselves in the foot this election cycle. They don’t have a strong leader and they refuse to be interested in the smart one (Huntsman). The GOP has become so involved in the “cultural” battles that they are losing the political war of getting back the White House!
In 2010 the Republicans campaigned on more jobs, more programs to boost the economy. However, the legislation they have provided in Congress and across the country have been about gays in the military, gay marriage, English as a national language, reaffirming our motto of “In God We Trust” and nearly pushing the USA into default on its obligations by not extending the debt ceiling. All of these things may be good political tactics but it makes terrible national policy and does nothing, absolutely nothing, to solve the countries ills or provide jobs.
The GOP has been playing pure hardball politics and their base voter is excited. But, in a General Election they will not get the Independent voter on their side and Obama will win another term as President of the United States. Indeed, the Democrats may even win the House of Representatives back and increase their majority in the Senate because of the far right hyperbole and rhetoric that has added nothing to the national debate but has only served to further divide this country along class of wealth, race, business owner and worker.
The only party waging a “class warfare” strategy is the GOP – and the nation doesn’t like it – and it will cost them dearly in the coming elections of November 2012.