As with your "美国债卷熊市可能遥遥无期", the history of the financial market supports this analysis. In the previous deflation-to-inflation stage from 1941 (or from 1947) to 1981, the benchmark rate (the U.S. 10Y yield) bottomed out around 1.9% in 1941 and made the double-bottom in 1947. The 10Y yield did not stay above 3% until 1957. In the early stage of the deflation-to-inflation, inflation is moderate because of still high debt levels. However the total returns from most types of bonds will ...